Southern California Earthquake Center Announces New Five-Year Research Program

The Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) will continue to coordinate the research of the nation's leading earthquake scientists, as the result of five years of new funding from the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the United States Geological Survey (USGS).

During a ceremony today at the University of Southern California (USC) to announce the new award, SCEC scientists described their mission to gather information about earthquakes in Southern California, integrate this information into a comprehensive, physics-based understanding of earthquake phenomena, and communicate the results to the public in order to increase earthquake awareness, reduce economic losses and save lives.

Herman Zimmerman, director of the NSF's Division of Earth Sciences, said the center demonstrates the close connection between scientific study and its benefits to society.

"The Southern California Earthquake Center is a partnership between the people of Southern California and the scientific community, which seeks to understand the earthquake mechanism," Zimmerman said. "These fundamental studies will help us with the practical problems of improving seismic hazard analysis and reducing earthquake risk."

SCEC was founded in 1991 as an NSF Science and Technology Center with additional support from the USGS. This program provided funding for a maximum of 11 years. "As our eleventh year approached, we were faced with the prospect of this going away... and I thought that was completely implausible," said Dr. Thomas Jordan, the center's director and the W.M. Keck Foundation Professor of Earth Sciences at USC. "We decided that there was a definite need for continuing the work that the center was doing."

Interest in the center has grown since it was started 11 years ago because Southern California is a natural laboratory for studying earthquakes, he said.

"Los Angeles really has one of the highest earthquake hazards of any major city in the world," Jordan said. "Trying to get at what's going on with earthquakes is very difficult. But here we have an opportunity to really get up close and personal with them." The scientists are particularly interested in studying fault systems and how strong ground motions generated by earthquakes are transmitted throughout the region.

"This partnership of academic scientists coming together to work on fundamental problems of earthquake science is critical for the long term goals of the USGS earthquake hazard reduction effort," said Dr. Lucy Jones, scientist-in-charge for Southern California with the USGS.

The center will get $3.6 million per year from the National Science Foundation and the U.S. Geological Survey for the next five years.

Aside from the base grant, there will also be $2 million per year from the NSF Information Technology Research Program, for the development of an online "collaboratory" system that will organize information about earthquakes and allow scientists to conduct their research interactively and much more efficiently.

In addition to new funding for research, SCEC's membership has expanded from 9 to 14 "core" institutions (those that contribute significant internal support towards the research objectives of SCEC). These are: University of Southern California (lead); California Institute of Technology; Columbia University; Harvard University; Massachusetts Institute of Technology; San Diego State University; Stanford University; U.S. Geological Survey (3 offices); University of California, Los Angeles; University of California, San Diego; University of California, Santa Barbara; and University of Nevada, Reno. There are also 25 participating institutions with scientists who are active in the research.

During its first 11 years, the center was the driving force behind the creation of a 250-station GPS network in Southern California that measures strain accumulation and release in the Los Angeles region.

The center also developed the primary data repository and distribution center for seismic networks in the region and was key in coordinating the field observations and scientific analysis after the Landers, Northridge and Hector Mine earthquakes.

"Over the last decade, we have learned a tremendous amount about how to precisely measure how faults are moving," said Jordan. "These studies have uncovered new fault systems within the Los Angeles region that were previously not known to exist, and they are helping to identify which faults are particularly dangerous. During the next five years, we hope to use our new capabilities to improve our understanding of where large earthquakes may occur in Southern California."

Understanding when earthquakes may happen, and how large they will be, is a much more complicated issue. "No method for short-term prediction of the time, place, and size of specific large earthquakes has yet demonstrated any real skill at a reliable level," Jordan cautioned. "The process that causes earthquakes appears to be very chaotic, so we are not optimistic that useful short-term earthquake prediction will ever be achieved, even with substantial improvements in the ability to detect precursory signals."

Science can, however, help reduce the risks associated with earthquakes. "Although earthquakes themselves may not be predictable in a short-term sense, many aspects of earthquake behavior can be anticipated with enough precision to be useful," added Jordan. For example, the Los Angeles region is characterized by deep sedimentary basins that can amplify seismic waves, creating 'hotspots' of intense shaking that can cause major damage during earthquakes. The locations of these hotspots can be identified with new computer simulations by SCEC scientists. "Such work has the potential to improve substantially the information engineers now use to design buildings, lifelines, and critical facilities such as large bridges and nuclear power plants to withstand seismic shaking," explained Jordan. These improvements can reduce economic loss and save lives.

In addition to improved science, the center also hopes to improve public understanding of earthquakes. "An important role for SCEC is to educate the public at large about what to expect in large earthquakes and how to prepare. Many people in Southern California are earthquake veterans, and they have a sophisticated attitude about seismic risk. They want good information, because they understand that seismic safety begins at home."

For more information about the Southern California Earthquake Center, visit www.scec.org. EDITOR: High-quality photos and video files, and other information, can be found at www.scec.org/april15/.