January 9, 2007 For Immediate Release

'Shift Happens -- Secure Your Space'

New science announced and new readiness campaign launched on
150th anniversary of San Andreas fault earthquake.

Prominent earthquake scientists from USC's Southern California Earthquake Center and the United States Geological Survey say they are nervous about the potential for a great earthquake on the San Andreas fault and are working to develop a better understanding of the next "Really Big One." Their concern is shared by emergency responders and other experts, who all fear major loss of life and property unless we each take action now to be ready, by securing buildings and contents. Here's why:

• Jan. 9, 2007 is the 150th anniversary of the last great San Andreas earthquake in Southern California, a magnitude 7.9 event that shook the entire region. The earthquake ruptured more than 225 miles of the fault from Parkfield (Central California) to the Cajon Pass. A repeat of this earthquake today may cause more than $150 billion in economic losses.
• Recent developments in earthquake geology confirm the average time between great earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault is about 150 years. However, the southernmost segment of the fault, from the Salton Sea through the Coachella Valley to San Bernardino, has not ruptured in more than 300 years. Scientists agree that a very large earthquake along this segment of the fault is inevitable. This earthquake will likely be a catastrophic disaster for much of Southern California.
• Hurricane Katrina showed the results of failing to be ready for an anticipated regional catastrophe and what can happen when a megadisaster pushes society to the breaking point.

To better understand the nature of this threat to Southern California, the world's experts on the San Andreas fault met Jan. 8 and 9 at USC to assess the present state of knowledge of the southernmost section of the fault -- and to devise a research plan to fill knowledge gaps. Scientists from the United States Geological Survey, Southern California Earthquake Center and the California Geological Survey detailed the evidence for earthquakes in the last 3,000 years on the southern San Andreas fault. The workshop was supported by the National Science Foundation and the U.S. Geological Survey.

This research will lead to improved knowledge of how often very large earthquakes occur along the San Andreas fault in Southern California, where the fault is more likely to rupture next, and the likely magnitude of such an earthquake. This information is critical for developing realistic models of how the earth will shake throughout the region.

The scientists at the conference are forming a consensus picture of the earthquake we all should be preparing for -- the one that is most likely to challenge our ability to respond and recover. Over the next year, the scientists and engineers will create a detailed scenario of what we can expect from that earthquake so we can all prepare for our inevitable future.

"New computer simulations show that a large southern San Andreas earthquake could cause shaking that is stronger and longer than previously anticipated. The results could be catastrophic," said Thomas Jordan, Southern California Earthquake Center director and professor of earth sciences at USC.

While the 1994 Northridge earthquake affected many people, buildings and utilities, it was a drop in the bucket when compared to a "Really Big One" on the San Andreas fault, which will be equivalent to more than 20 Northridge earthquakes lying end to end. This earthquake will shake all of Southern California for more than two minutes.

This earthquake will be particularly damaging to older, unreinforced, concrete tilt-up or unretrofitted buildings, especially buildings damaged in earlier earthquakes that have not been repaired. These dangerous buildings will cause serious loss of human life, financial burden on the communities and long-term economic impacts regionally.

"The more we know, the greater our concern," said Lucy Jones of the U.S. Geological Survey, "so we all must act now -- individually and in our communities. There are simple things you can do to be ready for this earthquake We're all in this together, and it is up to each of us to dare to prepare."

To promote these actions, the Earthquake Country Alliance is launching the "Dare to Prepare" earthquake readiness campaign. The campaign is supported with funding from federal, state and local partners. The Alliance is a public-private partnership of leading earthquake professionals, emergency managers, government officials, businesses and community leaders.

Acknowledging that "Shift Happens," the main message of the Dare to Prepare campaign is that if you "Secure Your Space" you can protect yourself, your family and your property. Secure your space by strapping top-heavy furniture and appliances to walls, adding latches to kitchen cabinets and securing televisions and other heavy objects that can topple and cause serious injuries. Homes and other buildings should be retrofitted, if necessary. This includes bolting houses to their foundations.

These and many other actions will greatly reduce your risk of damage or injury and limit your need for critical community resources. As Katrina demonstrated, the first line of defense in any disaster recovery is for the individual to avoid being part of the disaster in the first place.

"We need to shift our thinking about earthquakes," said Ellis Stanley, general manager for the City of Los Angeles Emergency Preparedness Department. "The notion that all we can do is pick up the pieces afterwards must be replaced with a new culture of readiness, where we act now to reduce our losses in the next big earthquake. Our individual actions will also make the whole community more resilient."

Components of the year-long Dare to Prepare campaign include:

• www.daretoprepare.org, a new Web site that provides how-to resources for a broad range of readiness actions;
• Movers and Shakers, a new leadership group of prominent Southern California elected officials, business and community leaders, and others;
• A comprehensive TV, radio and print campaign (English and Spanish) being planned for this spring featuring Edward James Olmos;
• Big Shaker, a new mobile shake simulator, demonstrating a living room being shaken in a large earthquake and the importance of securing contents;
• Distribution of several million Putting Down Roots in Earthquake Country handbooks;
• Local events and activities throughout the region (preparedness fairs, public presentations, "how-to" trainings at home improvement centers, etc.); and
• Great Southern California Shakeout, a large emergency response exercise with broad public participation, being planned for 2008.

Additional elements and activities will be added throughout the year.

Contact:
Mark Benthien, SCEC/USC, (213) 740-0323 or (213) 926-1683, benthien@usc.edu
Carl Marziali, USC Media Relations, (213) 740-4751 or (213) 219-6347, marziali@usc.edu
Stephanie Hanna, U.S. Geological Survey, (206) 331-0335 or shanna@usgs.gov