We would all be better prepared for earthquakes if we knew when the next one was coming. However, unlike the storm front that must travel to you before rain can begin, there are no warning signs for earthquakes. We have found no scientifically verifiable way to predict earthquakes.

Even though we cannot predict the time of the next earthquake, science can help us live safely with earthquakes. The road to earthquake safety follows several steps. First, we must estimate what earthquakes of what size are likely to occur (geology). Given that earthquake, we then estimate what the shaking will be (seismology). Given that shaking, we estimate the response of different types of buildings (earthquake engineering). Only with all these steps completed can we take the steps as a society to enact building codes and retrofitting programs to make our community safer.

Before we had radar to see an approaching storm front, we could look at the historic record and see that rain was likely in Los Angeles sometime in January. We also recognized that the larger storms caused landslides and debris flows, particularly in the mountain canyons. In the same way, we can analyze our average rate of earthquakes and what the effect of those earthquakes will be.

For instance, the geologic record of fault movement in Southern California tells us to expect an average of approximately 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7 or greater every century. From that, we can calculate the probability of having another major event in any given period of time.

Knowing that such an earthquake is likely, we use our knowledge of the fault locations and the soil conditions to estimate the likely patterns of shaking. We describe this shaking by its frequency content, intensity, and duration.

Understanding what shaking can be expected, we can use our knowledge of the behavior of buildings and their contents to estimate the probable damage. The news reports after earthquakes often dwell on what surprised the scientists because what's new is news. However, the damage in most earthquakes is not a great surprise.

Much of the damage in earthquakes is predictable and preventable. We must all come together in our communities to apply our knowledge to building codes, retrofitting programs, hazard hunts, and neighborhood and family emergency plans.

Next Page Introduction Confronting the Inevitable: Assessing the earthquake hazard in southern California The Master Fault The Other Faults of Southern California The Big Picture Taking Control: Earthquake damage is preventable. How to make your home and workplace safer. The Anatomy of a Safe Building Home Safe Home Your Personal Safety Life with Aftershocks Reviewing the Basics: Understanding the basics of earthquake science reduces fear. Measuring the Earthquake: Where was it? Measuring the Earthquake: How Big was it? Measuring the Shaking Common Earthquake Myths Afterword Bibliography Acknowledgements To order printed copies of this handbook, go to the SCEC Publications Catalog. Putting Down Roots in Earthquake Country is a product of the Southern California Earthquake Center and the United States Geological Survey, with additional support of organizations listed on the acknowledgements page.