SCEC INSTANeT News
	The Southern California Earthquake Center: A Resource for California and the Nation

By Thomas Henyey, Center Director As version 1.0 of the Southern California Earthquake Center approaches its sunset and version 2.0 begins to take shape, we need to ask ourselves some important questions regarding our role in earthquake science and hazard analysis in southern California. Following are some initial thoughts and answers to these questions. We would like to hear yours. What is SCEC's role? SCEC scientists have sought to understand southern California's "seismic hazard" or earthquake potential through basic scientific research. By integrating research results from many experts and by using state-of-the-art tools, SCEC is making significant headway in its fundamental goals to determine when and where future earthquakes are likely to occur, and to produce better ground motion simulations for input to emergency preparedness decisions, seismic code development, and engineering design. Headquartered in Los Angeles at the University of Southern California, SCEC serves as the principal organizer and coordinator of earthquake researchers in the region. SCEC was funded in 1991 for eleven years by the National Science Foundation, and has also received significant funding from the U.S. Geological Survey. Its many scientists, graduate students and post-doctoral fellows have conducted comprehensive studies on major earthquakes of the last decade in southern California. SCEC manages huge data archives such as the Seismic Data Center at Caltech, a strong motion data center at UC Santa Barbara, and the Southern California Integrated GPS Network (SCIGN) archives at NASA's JPL and SCEC develops hazard analysis methodology, and works with California State agencies to create useful products for government officials, educators, engineers, and the public. From the beginning, SCEC scientists were strongly influenced by the series of earthquakes in southern California that occurred between 1987-1999. We decided to address the concerns of citizens who live and work in this earthquake-prone region through an active communication, education and knowledge transfer program. Using expert advice from southern California constituents and partners, this program's mission has been to increase earthquake awareness and knowledge so that people take actions that improve safety and reduce loss. What if SCEC had not existed? First, basic earthquake research would not have been as well-focused and coordinated as it is now on hazard reduction and mitigation. As was the case prior to SCEC, there would be little communication among hundreds of researchers engaged in earthquake scientific and engineering research, and little integration of the various data and ideas. There would be no large-scale earthquake-related communication, education and knowledge transfer programs for the general public. And federal funding for this important research would not have been spent in southern California ­ to date, more than $60 million. We would not have our geodetic network, SCIGN, that will greatly enhance our ability to forecast earthquake phenomena by observing ground deformation in real time. We would not have the SCEC Data Center archives that thousands of researchers use worldwide. We would not know as much about many of the region's active faults that pose a serious threat to Los Angeles County and its most vulnerable areas, including downtown Los Angeles. We would not know that magnitude 7+ earthquakes are possible -- even probable -- on local faults. In short, we would be grossly ignorant of the causes of our earthquakes and equally unprepared to deal with them when they occur. Should SCEC continue? Much remains unknown about earthquakes in southern California, including how to reliably forecast the ground shaking that will affect the region's present and future structures and lifelines. There is broad agreement that SCEC should continue its work in earthquake science, as well as its strong program in public education and knowledge transfer. If SCEC were to fold, southern California would lose a valuable resource for research, education and information about its greatest hazard. The national (and international) scientific community would lose an influential advocate and coordinating entity for integrative earthquake science. The need for SCEC was underscored on September 20, 2000 when FEMA released its study showing that about half the national earthquake risk is concentrated in southern California, with 25% in Los Angeles county alone. According to a report published on the same day by the California Division of Mines and Geology (CDMG), the direct economic losses due to earthquakes in five high-risk Southern California counties (Los Angeles, Orange, San Bernardino, Riverside, San Diego, and Ventura) are expected to average $2.7 billion dollars per year. Given these losses, the State of California has a major stake in ensuring the continuation of SCEC. These losses will not just effect California, however. California's economy accounts for a signficant portion of the total U.S. economy, so the potential losses should be considered a nationwide issue. If this is what we are facing, should SCEC Continue? The answer must be yes. It is in the best interests of the people of California and the nation to marshal the talents of a world-class scientific community to address these issues. As such, SCEC is preparing a series of proposals to the National Science Foundation and others to renew its charter as a regional center for earthquake investigation and communication. The USGS, which recognizes SCEC's key role, has joined SCEC in formal partnership and promised future funding from the National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program (NEHRP). And SCEC is working with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory to convince NASA to designate southern California as a special region in which satellite-based remote sensing would be applied to the problem of earthquake hazards.   [Go to SCEC INSTANeT News Main Page]

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