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Development and Implementation of an Outreach Program to Promote Public Awareness of Seismic Hazards and Encourage Risk Mitigation in Vulnerable Communities (Part 3)

 

Part 1 of this document focuses on how the southern California earth science research community developed a plan to work with government officials, building and design professionals, educators, media reporters and writers, and the public to increase awareness of the region's seismic hazard and to facilitate decisions that result in strengthened and enforced codes and better building practices.

Part 2 includes specific examples of how we implement our outreach plan through interactions with our end users, especially those who develop risk mitigation measures.

Part 3 addresses the southern California scientific community's plans for response to a damaging metropolitan earthquake.

 

Part 3: Pre-Earthquake Planning for Post-Earthquake Response

(A SCEC Science Seminar, June, 1999)

To consider the scientific questions that SCEC researchers want to address through post-earthquake investigations, we conducted a seminar led by US Geological Survey Pasadena Office Chief Scientist and seismologist Lucile M. Jones. The seminar was an interactive discussion about why we do what we do after an earthquake. We examined what we are trying to achieve and which of the traditional investigations are obsolete in the era of broadband seismic networks and geodesy.

Up until this seminar, SCEC's earthquake response plan had been mostly names and phone numbers of people to be asked to organize others who would be going out into the field. Our objective from this seminar was to form a new plan organized around the scientific objectives of a post-earthquake investigation and how those objectives could be achieved. We also agreed that interactions should be identified and more accurately defined with the already-established "California Post-Earthquake Information Clearinghouse" (see page 18).

The goal was to set objectives so that after the next earthquake we can look at the list, pick the three or four objectives most relevant to this event (urban near-field damage? San Andreas rupture? Strike-slip along the side of a basin? etc.), and deploy our resources accordingly.

Scientists with field experience following large events brought to the meeting a transparency with important scientific questions they wanted to see answered by the next big earthquake. These were generic, applicable to all events, or specific to a plate boundary event, urban earthquake, etc.

The outcome of this seminar contributes to how research money will be spent after the next event.

Questions presented were assigned to one or more of three disciplinary groupings: Geology, Geodetics, and Seismology. Participants divided into these three disciplinary groupings and discussed and rank the questions presented in the morning session. They then formulated field experiments that would be done after an earthquake to address each question.

The results of the discussions were presented to the group as a whole, and the group discussed possible implementation methods. The results of the workshop will be synthesized into an official SCEC Response Plan.

A summary of the three groups follows:

Geology Group Summary (Tom Rockwell)

Following a large earthquake, geologists need to do the following in the first hours:

  • Resolve scope of surface rupture. They would need an immediate response team that is ready to go, with necessary equipment, clearance, and transportation to resolve extent of surface rupture. This requires access to a helicopter, with direct communication back to a data collection center. Aerial photos from any source would be extremely useful. This also requires real-time epicentral information, including size, focal mechanism, etc.
  • Install quadrilaterals/alignment arrays/afterslip studies, GPS, point alignments.

Geologists would need to do the following in the first day:

  • Aerial photography of the rupture as soon as the rupture zone is established, so more detailed work of documentation, including detailed mapping and slip measurements, can begin.
  • Slip measurements. There is a need to establish a common standard of quality to be followed by all participants; to perhaps establish a field mapping system complete with GPS receivers for more precise locations; to compile daily a summary of all field data at a common data collection center or clearinghouse; and to publish the data as soon as possible.
  • Detailed mapping; include focus on structure complexities

There is also a need for a structured response with common standards. This should be a collaborative effort between the USGS, CDMG, SCEC geologists, and others.

Geodesy Group Summary (Ken Hudnut)

Geodesists would like to have continuous instrumentation out in the field, which would eliminate the need to rush out to the field after the event. SCIGN has not built this capability into its program. Geodesists need GPS arrays across the fault to measure displacement.

Topics of interest for such investigations:

  • Coseismic
  • Stress triggering (observable rate changes adjacent to other faults; co-seismic motion on neighboring faults, for example.)
  • Campaign deployments
  • Instrumenting buildings
  • Long-period, long-wavelength deformations
  • Various models to explain

Geodesists would rely on SCEC/USGS to coordinate efforts. A possible structure:

  • SCEC: Crustal Deformation Working Group (Agnew: logistics)
  • SCIGN: (Hudnut: chair scientific integration, source modeling, feedback to Agnew's group)
  • USGS Menlo Park: Crustal deformation mega project (Thatcher)

Seismology Group Summary (Ralph Archuleta)

The group discussed what experiments could be deployed to answer the scientific questions. Timing, priority, organization, and personnel were taken into account. Archuleta constructed an organizational chart that indicated coordination of data analysis and modeling, communication, and field investigations, as well as considering real-time inventory of instruments.

Scientific questions considered included:

  • Site effects
  • Basin effects, basin edge, 3D structure
  • Geology + correlation to site response
  • Non-linearity (time urgency)
  • Coherency of near-field, scattering array around borehole stations
  • Ground motion and precarious rocks
  • Deep structure
  • Source effects–earthquake physics (time urgency)
  • Near field (source) recordings [time urgent]
  • Source properties (temporal changes)
  • Rupture dynamics
  • Rupture nucleation? (good rock sites)
  • Rupture stopping?
  • Subsurface structure
  • Fault zone trapped waves (fault complexity)
  • Where is the fault?
  • Stress triggering (modeling)
  • Crustal structure? Refraction

Other issues discussed by the entire group:

  • The need for cell phones and whether they are dependable in a post-earthquake setting
  • Walkie-talkies
  • The need to construct a Web page that could be used as a communications vehicle and that is password protected.
  • The need for ID cards, letters of permission to enter affected areas
  • The need to interface with California's OES and its technical clearinghouse
  • The need to invite SCEC researchers to future technical clearinghouse meetings
  • The need to recruit volunteers to continue the science plan effort
  • The need to conduct exercises based on scenario earthquakes
  • The need to identify funds for a post-earthquake scenario

 

 

The California Post Earthquake Information Clearinghouse

For two weeks following the January 17, 1994, Northridge earthquake, the California Office of Emergency Services (OES) Pasadena office served as the nerve center of an extensive reconnaissance effort. Every morning, earth scientists, engineers, social scientists, and public policy experts headed out to the damaged areas. After a day of looking at and studying the earthquake's effects, these experts returned to a crowded conference room in Pasadena to spend the evening sharing and reviewing their observations.

That was the first extensive operation of the California Post Earthquake Information Clearinghouse, a project of many organizations involved in earthquake studies. The clearinghouse is a unique way in which information can be exchanged among various types of investigators who come from other states and counties.

Within one day of the Northridge earthquake, clearinghouse field investigators were on site, bringing back damage reports that aided emergency response activities and focused earth science investigations. In a few days, the daily information became an impressive body of data for future analysis and use.

Clearinghouses had been organized following other California quakes. The California Division of Mines and Geology (CDMG) and the USGS worked with OES and the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute (EERI) to run the modest operations out of local school gymnasiums, firehouses, community colleges, and even motels.

The value of sharing information after these events was obvious, but they also realized that the clearinghouse was an efficient way to involve and track the large number of investigators who came to the damage scene.

A few months before the Northridge earthquake, the four leading organizations were joined by the California Seismic Safety Commission (CSSC). They reached an informal agreement to establish and operate a large clearinghouse after the next major earthquake. That agreement came just in time.

Hundreds of investigators passed through the doors of the Northridge clearinghouse during its two weeks of operation. Although it as an unqualified success, it also showed the need for formal plans and the involvement of more organizations.

The Plan

Clearinghouse collaborators have been meeting quarterly since March 1996 to plan for the needs of all the involved organizations.

In summary, the plan calls for the clearinghouse to: 1) be the check-in and check-out point for all investigators and officials who arrive at the scene; 2) collect and verify perishable reconnaissance information; 3) convey that information to the planning/intelligence function of the OES Regional Emergency Operations Center; 4) provide updated damage information through daily briefings and reports; 5) track investigators in the field; and 6) perhaps even direct their movements for maximum coverage with minimal disruption to residents.

In the few years since Northridge, the technology for capturing data has been vastly improved, and what was a comparatively primitive system in 1994 is now a networked geographic information system capable of tracking the investigators as well as their findings.

Within the clearinghouse management group, CDMG and USGS are responsible for conducting seismologic and geologic assessments of earthquakes. EERI has a charter from the National Science Foundation to investigate the structural and social effects of all major earthquakes in the U.S. and abroad. The CSSC is the main seismic policy body in the state, recommending new legislation and regulations to minimize earthquake losses. OES coordinates all the emergency planning and response activities in the state.

Besides the members of the management group, ten other organizations have signed on as participants in the clearinghouse plan:

  • Applied Technology Council
  • California Institute of Technology
  • California Universities for Research in Earthquake Engineering
  • Federal Emergency Management Agency, Region IX
  • National Aeronautics and Space Administration
  • Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center
  • Southern California Earthquake Center
  • Structural Engineers Association of California
  • Technical Council on Lifeline Earthquake Engineering
  • UC Berkeley Seismological Laboratory

Triggering a Clearinghouse

An earthquake in an urban area will trigger establishing a clearinghouse when the quake is damaging and has a magnitude of 6.0 or above. A clearinghouse may be established under other conditions if recommended by CDMG staff during initial field surveys following an earthquake.

A federal disaster declaration is not necessary to activate the clearinghouse, but the clearinghouse will always be activated when there is a federal disaster declaration.

In the first 24 hours after a serious quake, the OES region in which the earthquake strikes will provide, or work with other governmental units to arrange for, the clearinghouse space.

The duration of the clearinghouse operation depends on the extent of the damage and the length of the response period. While there is still a need for information to support response activities, or perishable data to be gathered, the field investigators will survey the damaged area.

 

 

Part 1 of this document focuses on how the southern California earth science research community developed a plan to work with government officials, building and design professionals, educators, media reporters and writers, and the public to increase awareness of the region's seismic hazard and to facilitate decisions that result in strengthened and enforced codes and better building practices.

Part 2 includes specific examples of how we implement our outreach plan through interactions with our end users, especially those who develop risk mitigation measures.

 

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