This one-day short course has been designed to provide greater understanding of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) and its applications. The course provides in-depth discussion of this specialized topic, in clear terms, with an emphasis on both fundamental and more advanced concepts. This course is jointly sponsored by the Association of Engineering Geologists (AEG), Southern California Section, and the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC).

Time:	Friday May 18, 2001 - 8:00 am to 5:00 pm
Location:	University of Southern California, Davidson Conference Center
	3415 South Figueroa Street; Los Angeles, CA

In this course, Dr. Rob Sewell keeps unfamiliar mathematics to a minimum, and describes elements of probabilistic analysis in a transparent way, using familiar graphical illustrations of key concepts. The PSHA principles are explained and demonstrated with real-world examples that involve the application of PSHA software, such as the widely used program FRISKSP.

The course starts by clearly explaining basic principles, and then gradually builds to intermediate and advanced concepts. Basic topics include modeling, and treatment of random (aleatory) variability, for (1) earthquake sources, including source types and geometries, maximum magnitudes, seismic activity rates, and magnitude probability distributions; (2) the earthquake rupture process, earthquake scenarios, and source-to-site distances; (3) ground motions, as related to magnitude, distance, and key geophysical parameters; and (4) the effects of local soil conditions. The discussion of basic concepts highlights the importance of (a) deterministic methods in describing the characteristics of possible earthquake scenarios, and (b) probabilistic methods in enumerating these scenarios and evaluating their likelihoods.

Intermediate concepts include determination of (1) hazard curves for spectral responses; (2) the uniform hazard spectrum (UHS); (3) near-source effects on the UHS, including average, fault-normal, and fault-parallel effects; (4) modification of spectra for soil effects; (5) deaggregation of PSHA results; and (6) hazard-compatible time histories. Advanced topics include (i) logic-tree methodology for analysis of expert/modeling (epistemic) uncertainties, (ii) sensitivity analysis, (iii) advanced PSHA approaches, (iv) risk analysis, and (v) management and quality assurance of PSHA projects. A clear explanatory presentation of each topic, and its relevance, will be provided.

Who Should Attend?

Engineers; geologists, seismologists, geophysicists, and other earth scientists; or any earthquake professional who is involved with, or has interest in, any of the following:

• Understanding the development, quantification, or utilization of estimates of ground motions or ground-motion hazard;
• Performing a study for any situation that involves seismic hazard or risk;
• Implementing the provisions for development of site-specific ground-motion design criteria according to applicable building standards (UBC, NEHRP, API, etc.);
• Reviewing studies that are based on investigation, assessment, or use of ground-motion hazard; or
• Understanding the role of PSHA in the decision making process.

Instructors

Robert T. Sewell, Ph.D. and Principal, R.T. Sewell Associates
Thomas F. Blake, Fugro West
Chuck Real, CDMG, Keynote Speaker at Noon,
        "Implementation of the Seismic Hazard Mapping Act work at CDMG".

Dr. Robert T. Sewell is Principal of R.T. Sewell Associates, Consulting, and specializes in probabilistic hazard and risk analysis for engineering decisions. He has been involved in numerous studies of earthquake-related hazards, with recent projects including liquefaction risk assessment for a nuclear power plant, tsunami hazard assessment for a liquefied natural gas (LNG) development, evaluation of ground-motion design criteria for a new office building of the U.S. Embassy, and analysis of secondary fault-displacement hazard for a residential development in Southern California. Dr. Sewell is also a principal reviewer of seismic safety studies for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Swiss Nuclear Safety Inspectorate.

Dr. Sewell has over 16 years of consulting experience on a variety of high-technology projects worldwide, including engineering and risk evaluation studies of nuclear power plants, pipelines, oil and industrial facilities, dams, solid waste landfills, a high-level waste nuclear repository, and conventional buildings. As a principal research investigator, he has been sponsored by various agencies to lead a variety of research projects on risk assessment, damage effectiveness of ground motions, and performance-based engineering. He is the author of several publications on engineering evaluation of hazards and risk, an engineering textbook, commercial software packages, and training seminars. Dr. Sewell received his Ph.D. in Engineering from Stanford University, and his Bachelors degree in Engineering from CSU, Chico. He is also a certified Project Management Professional.

Schedule 8:00 AM to 5:00 PM, Friday May 18, 2001

What Learning Materials are Provided with the Course?

Participants will receive a set of course notes with helpful information and worksheets, a list of useful Internet sites, and a CD-ROM containing valuable programs, data, and spreadsheets. In addition, you will receive a copy of Dr. Sewell's detailed paper describing the mechanics of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis methodology, which illustrates the complete manual solution of an example problem.

--CEU credits will be granted for this short course.
--Continental Breakfast, Lunch, and coffee breaks will be provided by the Davidson Center.