[Group B | Group C | Group D | Group E | Group F]

Group A will continue to emphasize research and outreach activities in seismic hazard evaluation and construction of a "physical master model" to explore the conditions which control earthquake potential (the probability of earthquakes as a function of location, magnitude, and time).

Task A1: Earthquake potential report. In 2000 we will continue work on a major report on models of future earthquake likelihood in southern California. The report will update the seismic source models presented in the Phase II report; include explicit consideration of blind thrust faults; present alternate source models based on fault slip rates, strain rates, and past seismicity, respectively; and assess the effects of errors and model alternatives on seismic hazards. The report will include an earthquake catalog with a lower magnitude threshold of 5 or lower and a database of fault geometry and slip rates. Each model will be evaluated for consistency with available data on geologic slip rates, geodetic strain rates, and past earthquake occurrence, and provision will be made for testing models against future earthquake occurrence. Proposals for work on this project should include an explicit commitment to a team effort.

Task A2: Models of stress evolution and earthquake potential. Proposals are sought that will advance the technology for modeling stress evolution (including secular tectonic stress, episodic stress increments from earthquakes, post-seismic and other inelastic transient effects, hydraulic effects, and realistic friction models). We also encourage projects that relate stress evolution to earthquake potential and provide hypothesis tests for evaluating stress evolution models and their effects on aftershocks as well as moderate and strong earthquakes.

Task A3: Physical and Probabilistic Models of Earthquake Potential. Proposals are welcome for studies of the physical processes leading to large earthquakes, statistical studies of phenomena revealing the likelihood of strong earthquakes, and hypothesis tests for recurrence models. Similar topics, with more specific objectives, will be considered under Tasks A1 and A2 above, and proposals should be addressed to those tasks if they fit. Task A3 covers those investigations not yet mature enough for inclusion in the Earthquake Potential report, or related to phenomena that may not be described in terms of stress.

Task A4: Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis. We welcome proposals for evaluating and comparing seismic hazard models and methodology, including the models used in the 1996 CDMG/USGS Hazard Maps and the HAZUS code supported by the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Proposed work should include assessment of the uncertainties and sensitivity to assumptions.

Task A5: "Legacy" documents. We welcome proposals to participate in the preparation of a set of comprehensive documents summarizing the accomplishments of the Center since its inception. Of special importance is the need to document in which areas the "center" mode of operation is most beneficial to earthquake science. What are the SCEC products which best exemplify the multi-disciplinary cooperative research promoted by SCEC. What are scientific advances which would probably not have been achieved (or perhaps not so expeditiously) without the presence of SCEC. The full documents should be produced for electronic publication and will be "browsable". A high quality hardcopy executive summary will also be prepared.

SCEC Master Model