The research objectives outlined below are priorities for SCEC3. They carry the expectation of substantial and measurable success during the coming year. In this context, success includes progress in building or maintaining a sustained effort to reach a long-term goal. How proposed projects address these priorities will be a major consideration in proposal evaluation, and they will set the programmatic milestones for the Center’s internal assessments. In addition to the priorities outlined below, the Center will also entertain innovative and/or "risky" ideas that may lead to new insights or major advancements in earthquake physics and/or seismic hazard analysis.

There are four major research areas with the headings A, B, C and D with subheadings given by numbers. The front page of the proposal should specifically identify subheadings that will be addressed by the proposed research.

1. Develop an extended earthquake rupture forecast to drive physics-based SHA
A1. Define slip rates and earthquake history of southern San Andreas fault system for the last 2000 years
A2. Investigate implications of geodetic/geologic rate discrepancies
A3. Develop a system-level deformation and stress-evolution model
A4. Statistical analysis and mapping of seismicity and source parameters with an emphasis on their relation to known faults
A5. Develop a geodetic network processing system that will detect anomalous strain transients
A6. Test scientific prediction hypotheses against reference models to understand the physical basis of earthquake predictability
A7. Determine the origin, evolution and implications of on- and off-fault damage
A8. Test hypotheses for dynamic fault weakening
A9. Assess predictability of rupture extent and direction on major faults
A10. Develop statistical descriptions of heterogeneities (e.g., in stress, strain, geometry and material properties) in fault zones, and understand their origin and implications for seismic hazard by observing and modeling single earthquake ruptures and multiple earthquake cycles.
A11. Constrain absolute stress and understand the nature of interaction between the faulted upper crust, the ductile crust and mantle, and how geologic history helps to resolve the current physical properties of the system.


2. Predict broadband ground motions for a comprehensive set of large scenario earthquakes
B1. Develop kinematic rupture representations consistent with observations and realistic dynamic rupture models of earthquakes.
B2. Investigate bounds on the upper limit of ground motion
B3. Develop high-frequency simulation methods and investigate the upper frequency limit of deterministic ground motion predictions
B4. Validate earthquake simulations and verify simulation methodologies
B5. Improve our understanding of nonlinear effects and develop methodologies to include these effects in broadband ground motion simulations.
B6. Collaborate with earthquake engineers to develop rupture-to-rafters simulation capability for physics-based risk analysis


3. Improve and develop community products (data or descriptions) that can be used in system-level models for the forecasting of seismic hazard. Proposals for such activities should show how they would significantly contribute to one or more of the numbered goals in A or B.


4. Prepare post-earthquake response strategies

Some of the most important earthquake data are gathered during and immediately after a major earthquake. Exposures of fault rupture are erased quickly by human activity, aftershocks decay rapidly within days and weeks, and post-seismic slip decays exponentially. SCEC solicits proposals for a workshop to plan post-earthquake science response. The goals of the workshop would be to: 1) develop a post-earthquake science plan that would be a living document such as a wiki; 2) identify permanent SCEC and other science facilities that are needed to ensure success of the science plan; 3) identify other resources available in the community and innovative ways of using technology for coordination and rapid data processing that will allow for rapid determination of source parameters, maps, and other characteristics of the source and ground motion patterns.; 4) develop plans for use of Peta-scale computing resources in post-earthquake response for evaluation of crustal stress changes along faults as well as short term prediction of potentially damaging ground motion patterns along ‘newly stressed’ faults; and 5) develop mechanisms for regular updates of the SCEC post-earthquake response plan.

SCEC Annual Reports are available online and searchable by SCEC3 Science Priority Objective(s).