SYNOPSIS: The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP), operated by the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC), provides an automated infrastructure for the blind prospective testing of earthquake forecasts. The only time-dependent forecasting procedures currently accommodated by CSEP are those that run automatically on CSEP computers and use seismicity data for updating the forecasts. To extend the range of forecasting models and CSEP testing capabilities, SCEC has undertaken a project, funded by the Department of Homeland Security, to develop a facility for registering and testing external forecasting and prediction (EFP) procedures; i.e., those run outside the extant CSEP. This facility will allow investigators to document their methods and submit forecasts and predictions for retrospective and prospective testing in accordance with collaboratory standards.

The purposes of this workshop are threefold: (a) assess community needs for CSEP-based testing of EFP procedures; (b) gather community input on the design of an EFP registration and testing system; and (c) encourage modeling groups to participate in specific experiments to test their own external forecasts and predictions.

The workshop will bring together CSEP personnel, scientists interested in conducting formal evaluations of their forecasts, scientists interested in EFP testing procedures, and agency representatives. The agenda for the two-day workshop will include session on the following topics:

1. Status and requirements for operational earthquake forecasting (OEF)
2. Current CSEP capabilities
3. Review of earthquake forecasts currently under CSEP testing
4. Reports by EFP developers on the status of forecasting/prediction experiments
5. Requirements for EFP registration into CSEP; acceptance testing; testing against reference models
6. Break-out group discussions of prototype EFP experiments
7. Recommendations from break-out groups for prototype EFP experiments
8. Standardization of EFP metadata, submission formats, and acceptance tests; model classes and reference models

This workshop will be followed by the SCEC CSEP Technical Planning Meeting: Priorities, Technical Implementation and Next Steps on May 8-9, 2013.