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SCEC CSEP Technical Planning Meeting: Priorities, Technical Implementation and Next Steps
Conveners: Tom Jordan (USC/SCEC), Phil Maechling (USC/SCEC), Andy Michael (USGS), Danijel Schorlemmer (GFZ), Max Werner (Princeton)
Dates: May 8-9, 2013
Location: Boardroom, Davidson Conference Center, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA
Participation: by invitation only

SYNOPSIS: The CSEP Workshop on Testing External Forecasts and Predictions (EFPs), taking place immediately prior to this technical planning meeting, is expected to result in recommendations for prototype EFP experiments. Given the scope and broad participation in the workshop, this smaller follow-up meeting amongst CSEP personnel and scientists will help establish the associated technical requirements for prototype EFP experiments, identify priorities and required resources, and determine the next steps for CSEP EFP activities. In addition, this meeting will leverage workshop participation by global CSEP scientists to recommend CSEP priorities on prospective and retrospective short-term forecasting experiments.

The purposes are: (a) assess CSEP requirements and priorities for EFP prototype experiments; (b) develop EFP prototype implementation plan; (c) assess designs for new short-term and retrospective experiments; (d) recommend priorities for CSEP activities.

This meeting will bring together CSEP personnel (scientists and developers), scientists committed to implementing EFP and OEF testing procedures, and agency representatives. The expected outcomes include:

  1. A document defining recommended prototype EFP experiments (submission formats, acceptance tests, model classes, reference models, evaluation procedures, metadata)
  2. A list of tasks to implement the prototype EFP experiments.
  3. Recommendations for the design of new short-term experiments.
  4. Recommendations for retrospective experiments.
  5. Recommended list of priorities for EFP-related and other CSEP activities judged by scientific merit, technical challenges and available resources.

WEDNESDAY, MAY 8, 2013
14:30-14:40 Meeting Goals and Objectives M. Werner
Session 1: Technical Planning for Implementing the Recommended Prototype EFPs
Moderator: P. Maechling; Reporter: M. Liukis
14:40-15:10 Recommended Prototype EFPs: Technical Requirements and Next Steps
15:10-15:30 Discussion
Session 2: CSEP Experiments to Support OEF/EFP Activities
Moderator: W. Marzocchi; Reporter: J. Zechar
15:30-15:45 Retrospective CSEP Experiments in New Zealand D. Rhoades /
M. Gerstenberger
15:45-16:00 Short-Term Experiments to Support OEF in California
  1. Choosing forecast horizons and testing frequencies
  2. Retrospective experiments: merits and designs
  3. Data: catalog latency (testing day), ComCat, adequate evaluation methods
A. Michael /
M. Werner
16:00-17:30 Discussion
17:30 Adjourn
18:30-21:00 Group Dinner at The Lab Gastropub
THURSDAY, MAY 9, 2013
07:30-08:30 Breakfast
Session 3: Experiment Design: Assumptions, Issues, Solutions
08:30-08:40 Weaknesses and their Solutions in Current CSEP Experiments W. Marzocchi
08:40-08:50 Event-Based (Point-Wise) Experiments: Theory, Merits, Challenges M. Werner
08:50-09:30 Discussion
Session 4: Data Uncertainties in CSEP Experiments
09:30-09:45 Handling Data Uncertainties in Evaluations J. Zechar
09:45-10:00 Discussion
10:00-10:15 Break
Session 5: Strategies for Retrospective Experiments
10:15-10:30 The Canterbury/Christchurch Retrospective Experiment W. Marzocchi
10:30-11:00 Discussion: CSEP Strategies for Retrospective Experiments
Session 6: Wrap-Up and Recommended Priorities for CSEP
11:00-12:30 Summary and Recommended Priorities for CSEP
12:30 Adjourn




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