SCEC CSEP Technical Planning Meeting: Priorities, Technical Implementation and Next Steps
Conveners: Tom Jordan (USC/SCEC), Phil Maechling (USC/SCEC), Andy Michael (USGS), Danijel Schorlemmer (GFZ), Max Werner (Princeton)
Dates: May 8-9, 2013
Location: Boardroom, Davidson Conference Center, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA
Participation: by invitation only
SYNOPSIS: The CSEP Workshop on Testing External Forecasts and Predictions (EFPs), taking place immediately prior to this technical planning meeting, is expected to result in recommendations for prototype EFP experiments. Given the scope and broad participation in the workshop, this smaller follow-up meeting amongst CSEP personnel and scientists will help establish the associated technical requirements for prototype EFP experiments, identify priorities and required resources, and determine the next steps for CSEP EFP activities. In addition, this meeting will leverage workshop participation by global CSEP scientists to recommend CSEP priorities on prospective and retrospective short-term forecasting experiments.
The purposes are: (a) assess CSEP requirements and priorities for EFP prototype experiments; (b) develop EFP prototype implementation plan; (c) assess designs for new short-term and retrospective experiments; (d) recommend priorities for CSEP activities.
This meeting will bring together CSEP personnel (scientists and developers), scientists committed to implementing EFP and OEF testing procedures, and agency representatives. The expected outcomes include:
- A document defining recommended prototype EFP experiments (submission formats, acceptance tests, model classes, reference models, evaluation procedures, metadata)
- A list of tasks to implement the prototype EFP experiments.
- Recommendations for the design of new short-term experiments.
- Recommendations for retrospective experiments.
- Recommended list of priorities for EFP-related and other CSEP activities judged by scientific merit, technical challenges and available resources.
WEDNESDAY, MAY 8, 2013
| 14:30-14:40 |
Meeting Goals and Objectives |
M. Werner |
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Session 1: Technical Planning for Implementing the Recommended Prototype EFPs Moderator: P. Maechling; Reporter: M. Liukis |
| 14:40-15:10 |
Recommended Prototype EFPs: Technical Requirements and Next Steps |
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| 15:10-15:30 |
Discussion |
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Session 2: CSEP Experiments to Support OEF/EFP Activities Moderator: W. Marzocchi; Reporter: J. Zechar |
| 15:30-15:45 |
Retrospective CSEP Experiments in New Zealand |
D. Rhoades / M. Gerstenberger |
| 15:45-16:00 |
Short-Term Experiments to Support OEF in California
- Choosing forecast horizons and testing frequencies
- Retrospective experiments: merits and designs
- Data: catalog latency (testing day), ComCat, adequate evaluation methods
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A. Michael / M. Werner |
| 16:00-17:30 |
Discussion |
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| 17:30 |
Adjourn |
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| 18:30-21:00 |
Group Dinner at The Lab Gastropub |
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| THURSDAY, MAY 9, 2013 |
| 07:30-08:30 |
Breakfast |
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Session 3: Experiment Design: Assumptions, Issues, Solutions |
| 08:30-08:40 |
Weaknesses and their Solutions in Current CSEP Experiments |
W. Marzocchi |
| 08:40-08:50 |
Event-Based (Point-Wise) Experiments: Theory, Merits, Challenges |
M. Werner |
| 08:50-09:30 |
Discussion |
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Session 4: Data Uncertainties in CSEP Experiments |
| 09:30-09:45 |
Handling Data Uncertainties in Evaluations |
J. Zechar |
| 09:45-10:00 |
Discussion |
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| 10:00-10:15 |
Break |
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Session 5: Strategies for Retrospective Experiments |
| 10:15-10:30 |
The Canterbury/Christchurch Retrospective Experiment |
W. Marzocchi |
| 10:30-11:00 |
Discussion: CSEP Strategies for Retrospective Experiments |
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Session 6: Wrap-Up and Recommended Priorities for CSEP |
| 11:00-12:30 |
Summary and Recommended Priorities for CSEP |
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| 12:30 |
Adjourn |
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