Exciting news! We're transitioning to the Statewide California Earthquake Center. Our new website is under construction, but we'll continue using this website for SCEC business in the meantime. We're also archiving the Southern Center site to preserve its rich history. A new and improved platform is coming soon!

## UNDERGRADUATE STUDIES IN EARTHQUAKE INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

### What is the Grand Challenge

Research activities of USEIT are structured around "Grand Challenges" in earthquake information technology. The Grand Challenge is posed by SCEC Director Tom Jordan during the first week of of the summer program.

Year Challenge Statement
2019 Estimate the probability of such a hiatus from two earthquake forecasting models, (a) the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3) and (b) earthquake catalogs generated by running the RSQSim rupture simulator. Calculate both state-independent and state-dependent probabilities. Condition the state-dependent probabilities on the occurrence of large earthquakes on the northern (1906-type) and southern (1857-type) San Andreas Fault during the 50-100 years before the hiatus. Assess the chances of large California earthquakes that might occur during the next 30 years using (i) frequencies computed directly from RSQSim catalogs and (ii) probabilities computed by applying machine-learning techniques to RSQSim catalogs. They will also illustrate these 30-year probabilities with representative scenarios that include estimates of expected ground motions, economic losses, and human casualties.

## Summary

California is experiencing an “earthquake drought”: no ground-rupturing earthquake has occurred during the last century on the principal faults of the San Andreas system. The 2019 Grand Challenge will focus on two main research questions: (1) Is a hiatus of 100 years or longer consistent with earthquake forecasting models? (2) What are the implications of the hiatus for future earthquake activity in California? Your investigations will focus on the following tasks: Estimate the probability of such a hiatus from two earthquake forecasting models, (a) the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3) and (b) earthquake catalogs generated by running the RSQSim rupture simulator.
Calculate both state-independent and state-dependent probabilities. Condition the state-dependent probabilities on the occurrence of large earthquakes on the northern (1906-type) and southern (1857-type) San Andreas Fault during the 50-100 years before the hiatus.
Assess the chances of large California earthquakes that might occur during the next 30 years using (i) frequencies computed directly from RSQSim catalogs and (ii) probabilities computed by applying machine-learning techniques to RSQSim catalogs.
They will also illustrate these 30-year probabilities with representative scenarios that include estimates of expected ground motions, economic losses, and human casualties.

2018 Develop a computational system for evaluating how effective the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, version 3 (UCERF3), can predict long-term rates of M ≥ 7 ruptures on the southern San Andreas Fault. In lieu of real data, test the UCERF3 model against long synthetic seismicity catalogs for Southern California generated by running the RSQSim rupture simulator on the Blue Waters supercomputer. Use SCEC-VDO to visualize the full RSQSim catalog as well as RSQSim catalog reduced to M ≥ 7 ruptures on the southern San Andreas fault system. Compare the skill of UCERF3 relative to ideal RSQSim forecast and a spatially independent reference forecast. Explore applications of machine learning to derive a statistical earthquake forecast. Illustrate hazards and risks of ruptures on the San Andreas Fault. more...

2017 Develop a computational system for probabilistic forecasting of earthquake sequences in Southern California, apply the system to initial-event scenarios, compare the simulator-based probabilities against official data of large aftershocks from Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast version 3 (UCERF3), and illustrate the hazards and risks of multi-event scenarios that could threaten the Los Angeles with sequence-specific maps of expected ground motions, economic losses, and human casualties. more...

2016 Run physics-based earthquake simulators on a high-performance computer to generate long catalogs of California seismic activity from the synthetic catalog statistics, develop 10-year forecasts of large earthquakes (M ≥ 7) on the southern San Andreas fault system (or a well-defined part of this system), and identify threatening multi-event scenarios and illustrate them with hazard and risk maps. more...

2014 Develop SCEC-VDO and GIS tools for exploring and evaluating the aftershock hazards implied by the new Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3). Guide these evaluations using M7 rupture scenarios developed for the 25th Anniversary of the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake. more...

2013 Develop SCEC-VDO and GIS tools for exploring the new Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3.3, and use the UCERF3.3 to produce visualizations of the earthquake hazard in Southern California for public education during the 20th Anniversary of the 1994 Northridge earthquake. more...

2012 Develop visualization capabilities based on SCEC-VDO and GIS that can display earthquake rupture forecasts, and publish
visualization products that can be used to educate the general public about the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecasts, including the new forecasting model, UCERF3. more...

2011 Develop a Seismic Sequence Visualization System based on SCEC-VDO and GIS that can display earthquake sequences, monitor their evolution in space and time, and assess their hazards and risks. more...

2010 Develop a Seismic Crisis Visualization System based on SCEC-VDO that can display information needed for operational earthquake forecasting. more...

2009 Deliver SCEC-VDO images and animations of faults and earthquake sequences to SCEC, the Earthquake Country Alliance, and other virtual organizations via a content management system that captures the metadata and guides the user. more...

2008 Communicate the value and the content of the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast to end-users and the public at large. more...

2007 Communicate important earthquake science concepts by creating one or more "serious games" based on SCEC-VDO. more...

2006 Develop fault-sytem visualization tools to detect anomalous earthquake behavior, particularly behavior that might be precursory to a future large earthquake. more...

2005 Create and earthquake monitoring system based on SCEC-VDO that enables the rapid integration and visualization of data sets needed to evaluate the potential danger of a rapidly evolving earthquake sequence. more...

2004 Develop a version of LA3D that is functionally capable or stable enough to release to the scientific community. Prototype the next generation of intern software, which should be capable of visualizing earthquake objects in a whole-Earth spherical coordinate system (SCEC-VDO). more...

2003 Enhance LA3D with animation and scripting capabilities that can generate a movie within one hour after a significant earthquake, showing the 3D relationships of the mainshock hypocenter to regional faults. more...

2002 Develop an open-source, object-oriented visualization platform in Cartesian coordinates (LA3D) that allows the interactive, 3D exploration of the active faults and seismicity of Southern California to a depth of 50 km. more...