UNDERGRADUATE STUDIES IN EARTHQUAKE INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
| ABOUT | GRAND CHALLENGES | INTERNS | PROJECTS |
Summary |
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 The 2018 intern cohort developed a computational system for evaluating how well the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, version 3 (UCERF3), can predict long-term rates of M ≥ 7 ruptures on the southern San Andreas Fault. In lieu of real data, they tested the UCERF3 model against long synthetic seismicity catalogs for Southern California generated by running the RSQSim rupture simulator on the Blue Waters supercomputer.Using the SCEC Virtual Display of Objects (SCEC-VDO), they visualized the full RSQSim catalog, as well as the RSQSim catalog reduced to M ≥ 7 ruptures on the southern San Andreas fault system. They compared the skill of UCERF3 relative to the ideal RSQSim forecast and a spatially independent reference forecast. A group of interns investigated how machine learning might be used to derive a statistical earthquake forecast from deterministic RSQSim simulations. From the RSQSim rupture set, they selected three earthquake scenarios on the southern San Andreas Fault that are among the most threatening in terms of annualized expected loss, and they illustrated their hazard and risk with maps of expected ground motions, economic losses, and human casualties. |
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Challenge Statement |
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| Develop a computational system for evaluating how effective the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, version 3 (UCERF3), can predict long-term rates of M ≥ 7 ruptures on the southern San Andreas Fault. In lieu of real data, test the UCERF3 model against long synthetic seismicity catalogs for Southern California generated by running the RSQSim rupture simulator on the Blue Waters supercomputer. Use SCEC-VDO to visualize the full RSQSim catalog as well as RSQSim catalog reduced to M ≥ 7 ruptures on the southern San Andreas fault system. Compare the skill of UCERF3 relative to ideal RSQSim forecast and a spatially independent reference forecast. Explore applications of machine learning to derive a statistical earthquake forecast. Illustrate hazards and risks of ruptures on the San Andreas Fault. |
Intern Class of 2018
