Announcing AGU Session S16: Global Adventures in Earthquake Predictability Experiments

Dear Colleagues,

Please consider contributing to the following special session at the Fall AGU meeting 2007:

S16: Global Adventures in Earthquake Predictability Experiments

Earthquake forecasting research is gradually shifting focus from a course of seeking precursory signals that might allow earthquake warnings to a course of quantifying predictability of earthquake processes. The latter approach emphasizes system-level understanding of earthquake physics and thus a cooperative effort is natural. In addition to this change in focus, researchers can leverage new, high-quality datasets (e.g., GPS and relocated seismicity) and consensus models (e.g., models of fault structure and seismic velocity). These developments enable and encourage collaborative, experiment-based investigations. This approach to elucidating the nature of earthquake predictability presents a new set of opportunities and challenges; We solicit submissions that address one or more of the following issues as they relate to earthquake predictability: status of current (and plans for future) regional and global experiments; integration of new data and application of new models; methods for testing and evaluation. A special focus of this session are global experiments.

Convener:

Danijel Schorlemmer
Southern California Earthquake Center
University of Southern California

Thomas H. Jordan
Southern California Earthquake Center
University of Southern California