AGU Special Session NG03: Predictability of Extreme Events

We would like to call your attention to a special session NG03 "Development and Predictability of Extreme Events in Complex Systems" of the 2009 Joint Assembly ("The Meeting of the Americas") in Toronto, Ontario, May 24-27.

The session will bring together the leading experts in analysis of natural extremes and will initiate a broad discussion of the following principal questions:
Q1) What are the underlying mechanisms (physical, statistical, or phenomenological) of extreme event generation?
Q2) What are the common statistical properties of extreme events in different spatio-temporal systems?
Q3) What is the degree of predictability of extreme events? (Please see the formal session abstract below.)

We encourage you to submit contributions in both oral and poster formats. The deadline for submission is March 4, 2009. You can submit your paper at http://www.agu.org/meetings/ja09/program/abstract_submissions.php

We look forward to seeing you in Toronto!

Sincerely, session organizers:
Vladimir Keilis-Borok, University of California Los Angeles (vkb@ess.ucla.edu)
Andrei Gabrielov, Purdue University (agabriel@math.purdue.edu)
Ilya Zaliapin, University of Nevada Reno (zal@unr.edu)

SESSION NG03
Title: Development and Predictability of Extreme Events in Complex Systems

Abstract:
Nature and society persistently generate extreme events - abrupt overall changes, also known as disasters, catastrophes, critical phenomena, etc. Such events are commonly recognized as the major threat to survival and sustainability of our civilization. The humankind vulnerability to extreme events is already unacceptable and rapidly grows, elevating this threat to the major concern of the governance worldwide. This session welcomes original contributions focused on modeling and predictability of suitably defined extreme events in complex systems that operate in spatial, temporal, or spatio-temporal domain. A particular focus is on environmental extremes including, but not limited to, earthquakes, wildfires, landslides, and volcanic eruptions. The session will discuss physically based and heuristic modeling approaches as well as extreme event predictions for continuous and marked point processes. The following questions are emphasized: What are the underlying mechanisms (physical, statistical, or phenomenological) of extreme event generation? What are the common statistical properties of extreme events in different spatio-temporal systems? What is the degree of predictability of extreme events?