SCEC Award Number 11036 View PDF
Proposal Category Individual Proposal (Integration and Theory)
Proposal Title ALLCAL -- An Earthquake Simulator for All of California
Investigator(s)
Name Organization
Steven Ward University of California, Santa Cruz
Other Participants
SCEC Priorities A3, A6, A9 SCEC Groups EFP, CDM, Geodesy
Report Due Date 02/29/2012 Date Report Submitted N/A
Project Abstract
 We propose to improve understanding of earthquake predictability and hazard by means of designing and tuning of an ALLCAL earthquake simulator. The ultimate goal is to employ both geological and geodetic data to constrain ALLCAL slip rates and to progress toward a self-consistent system-level model for stress accumulation by tectonic deformations and subsequent release by slip on faults.
Intellectual Merit The over-arching goal of my efforts is SYSTEM LEVEL SCIENCE unifying geodesy, geology, simulators and seismicity. Geodesy deforms the region and stresses a realistic fault system in a manner consistent with Geology. Simulators release those on-fault stresses in believable earthquake sequences. On-fault quakes combine with off-fault quakes computed from residual stresses such to match patterns and rates observed from historical seismicity.
Broader Impacts You Tube style videos are one modern method to reach out to a younger generation of might-be scientists with visual, succinct, compelling but short bites of science. It’s not easy task to package ones research this way, but I have given it a shot. Please watch my “Tube” entitled Earthquake Simulators http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iIuwAAPAEFw
Exemplary Figure Figure 3. Four frames from a run of ALLCAL. The movie plots all earthquakes M>4.5. For events M>6, PGA is con-toured around the rupture and a magnitude number is shown. Left is a graph of the cumulative number of M4.5+ quakes (red dots) overlaid on the actual rates (green zone). The over-aching goal of my efforts is SYSTEM LEVEL SCIENCE unifying geodesy, geology, simulators and seismicity. Geodesy deforms the region and stresses a realistic fault system in a manner consistent with Geology. Simulators release those on-fault stresses in believable earthquake sequences. On-fault quakes combine with off-fault quakes computed from residual stresses such to match patterns and rates observed from historical Seismicity.