SCEC Award Number 11077 View PDF
Proposal Category Collaborative Proposal (Integration and Theory)
Proposal Title CSEP Participation and Collaboration on Forecast Testing methods and Model Development
Name Organization
Matthew Gerstenberger GNS Science (New Zealand) David Rhoades GNS Science (New Zealand)
Other Participants
SCEC Priorities A6, C SCEC Groups CSEP, EFP, Seismology
Report Due Date 02/29/2012 Date Report Submitted N/A
Project Abstract
Funding for this grant was to cover travel and expenses so that Matt Gerstenberger and David Rhoades could attend the SCEC Annual Meeting and associated visits. The work presented in this meeting was related to ideas discussed in the proposal, CSEP related topics, or to previous SCEC funded work. Additionally, both researchers participated in multiple discussions related to CSEP development. In April 2011, David Rhoades attended the SSA Annual Meeting in Memphis, funded by the 2010 SCEC grant.
Intellectual Merit The research presented in the report contributes to advances in time-dependent earthquake forecast and hazard modelling through improved models and model evaluation. Additionally, we have contributed to the interpretation and understanding of the first 5 years of RELM results and to the on going development of CSEP.
Broader Impacts Possible benefits to society can come through improved earthquake forecasting models and a better understanding of their behaviour. Results related to this work have already been used to update building design standards in New Zealand.
Exemplary Figure Figure 1. New Zealand earthquake occurrence rate density of the PMF model for magnitude M6.5, as at 1 Apr 2011. The rate density is normalised relative to a reference (RTR) model in which the expected number of earthquakes exceeding magnitude m is 1 per year in an area of 10m km2.