SCEC Award Number 12090 View PDF
Proposal Category Individual Proposal (Integration and Theory)
Proposal Title Application of Scenario Physics-Based Ground Motion Simulations to Improve Seismic Risk Assessment for Regional Building Inventories
Name Organization
Abbie Liel University of Colorado, Boulder
Other Participants 1 graduate research assistant
SCEC Priorities 6e SCEC Groups EEII, GMSV
Report Due Date 03/15/2013 Date Report Submitted N/A
Project Abstract
This research uses physics-based ground motion simulations developed by SCEC researchers to improve seismic risk assessments for regional building inventories. The research has two primary objectives: (1) to quantify correlations in building seismic response resulting from correlations in ground motion intensity and/or in building construction; and (2) to examine the extent to which different sets of assumptions in regional seismic loss estimation account for these correlations. The study assesses economic losses for the stock of concrete frame buildings in and around downtown Los Angeles, due to a 7.8 moment magnitude scenario rupture of the San Andreas Fault (i.e. the ShakeOut Scenario). The purpose of this study is to make a “Benchmark” prediction of earthquake-induced losses in this building stock using state-of-the-art ground motion simulations, structural analyses, and loss assessment techniques. The Benchmark loss prediction is compared to estimates that are representative of current regional loss estimation procedures. Comparisons of the results demonstrate the strengths and weakness of different regional loss estimation techniques and highlight the importance of certain aspects of regional loss estimation, particularly the consideration of spatial correlations in ground shaking intensity and building response.
Intellectual Merit This study will improve methods for regional estimation of seismic losses by systematically comparing loss estimation methods with different assumptions and characteristics. A unique feature of the study is the use of the SCEC ground motion simulations to develop a state-of-the-art Benchmark prediction against which other, more commonly used, methods of regional loss estimation can be compared. The goal of the study is to develop better estimates of the mean and variance in regional earthquake-induced losses, both of which are needed for prediction of the rare losses that may strongly affect decision making.
Broader Impacts Tools for predicting seismic losses in a geographically-distributed building inventory are in need of further refinement. Regional loss estimations are important for development of better retrofit and design guidelines and for use insurance companies, emergency responders and other officials. Two graduate students and one undergraduate have been directly involved in the work described in this report. The findings will be presented at ICOSSAR in June, 2013 and in a journal publication under preparation.
Exemplary Figure Figure 1. Spatial correlations between IM (Ln[Sa(T1)]) and EDPs (Ln[IDR], Ln[PFA], Ln[BPHR] and Ln[CPHR]) for an identical building (Building 1) located at different sites affected by the Northridge earthquake.