SCEC Award Number 13150 View PDF
Proposal Category Individual Proposal (Integration and Theory)
Proposal Title What is the Probability of Induced Seismicity Triggering a Major Earthquake in the Salton Sea?
Investigator(s)
Name Organization
Emily Brodsky University of California, Santa Cruz
Other Participants 1 student
SCEC Priorities 2, 3, 4 SCEC Groups Seismology, WGCEP, CSEP
Report Due Date 03/15/2014 Date Report Submitted N/A
Project Abstract
 Geothermal power generation commonly induces seismicity. We have shown that the earthquakes in the Salton Sea region are directly related to the net extraction of fluid in the field. We used an ETAS model to decluster the catalog and then related the background rate to publically available monthly injection and production data. The success of this project also shows that the induced earthquakes have aftershocks, which can potentially occur on other faults in the region. Therefore, it is possible that induced seismicity can trigger tectonic events. This project specifically addresses SCEC4 problem 2f focusing on induced seismicity in the Salton Sea area.
Intellectual Merit The intellecutal merits of this work is in developing fundamental observations of earthquake rates in response to known stressing. In particular, fluid pressures are often evoked as a mechanism for triggering earthquakes, yet direct observations of the phenomenon under controlled conditions are limited. In addition, establishing that induced earthquakes have similar aftershock behavior to ordinary earthquakes constrains the mechanisms for interactions between faults.
Broader Impacts Human-impacted earthquakes are a large and growing concern for society. Empirical methods, like that developed in this work, are desperately needed in order to guide policy.
Exemplary Figure Figure 3A (Also included on a separate page as exemplary figure with better fonts). Results of linear model of seismicity based on a combination of injection and net production. Observed seismicity rate and model prediction of seismicity rate using the observed fluid data and the best-fit linear model.

Citation: Brodsky, E. E. and L.J. Lajoie, Connecting anthropogenic seismicity rates to operational parameters at the Salton Sea Geothermal Field, Science, DOI:10.1126/science.1239213.