SCEC Award Number 17025 View PDF
Proposal Category Individual Proposal (Integration and Theory)
Proposal Title Earthquake Simulators, Statistics and Software: Laying the Basis for Forecasting, Nowcasting, and Tsunami Early Warning
Investigator(s)
Name Organization
John Rundle University of California, Davis
Other Participants 1 Graduate Student
SCEC Priorities 5a, 5b, 5c SCEC Groups CISM, WGCEP, CS
Report Due Date 06/15/2018 Date Report Submitted 03/23/2018
Project Abstract
 With the current growing SCEC emphasis on earthquake simulators and related technology (CISM), we request continued funding to develop and disseminate improved simulator technology using the Virtual Quake software platform. In the previous cycle we focused on the development of RELM-type forecast testing methods. We will continue to post/port codes to public code repositories such as CIG and GITHub, along with improved documentation, so that colleagues can more readily use and test the codes under development. During this year’s cycle we will continue to develop testable earthquake forecasting and nowcasting methods using our VQ simulator as a code validation platform for the SCEC effort in this area. We will also plan to begin laying the basis for the development of end-to-end simulators for the NASA supported GNSS tsunami early warning system. This project is the subject of a rapidly developing international collaboration for the application of Global Navigation Satellite System technology to tsunami early warning using ionospheric traveling electron density waves resulting from earthquake-tsunami-atmospheric coupling. The first step in this project will be a workshop (JB Rundle, PI), funded by NASA, to be held in Sendai, Japan in May of 2017 to identify the needs and types of GNSS data that are required. Next steps involve the development of end-to-end tsunami simulator technology involving the earthquake source, the ocean response, propagation into the ionosphere, and analysis software.
Intellectual Merit Large earthquakes on underwater subduction zones are associated with both vertical and horizontal sea floor displacements. The resulting displaced water flows outward in the form of a tsunami. These tsunamis can inundate populated coastal areas with little warning, devastating unprepared regions. Efforts to track ocean waves with GPS-equipped buoys are promising but limited by low spatial resolution. However, these surface waves interact with the atmosphere to produce density fluctuations in the ionosphere’s electron content, which can be detected by the myriad GNSS signals being sent through the atmosphere. The goal of this project is to use physically-based simulations of earthquakes, tsunamis, and the ionosphere to produce catalogs of synthetic ionosphere signatures corresponding to potential tsunamis in tsunamigenic regions around the world. These signatures could be compared to real-time GNSS signal data to provide early warning to those at risk of tsunami inundation.
Broader Impacts This project is the subject of a rapidly developing international collaboration for the application of Global Navigation Satellite System technology to tsunami early warning using ionospheric traveling electron density waves resulting from earthquake-tsunami-atmospheric coupling. The first step in this project was a workshop (JB Rundle, PI), funded by NASA, that was held in Sendai, Japan during July 25-27, 2017 to identify the needs and types of GNSS data that are required. Final report of this workshop will be available soon, and next steps are being discussed for deployment of the system.
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