Testing the ETAS Model to Forecast the Microseismicity Induced by Hydraulic Fracturing Operations at Preston New Road, UK

Simone Mancini, Maximilian J. Werner, Margarita Segou, & Brian Baptie

In Preparation July 8, 2020, SCEC Contribution #10149

Making reliable forecasts of seismicity induced by human activities is highly desirable to mitigate the risk of disturbing or damaging earthquakes. Here, we assess the predictive skills of a well-established statistical model, the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS), on a catalog of microseismicity observed during and after fluid injection at the Preston New Road (UK) hydraulic fracturing site. Since ETAS was originally developed for tectonic clustered seismicity, we also generate several realizations of a modified ETAS where the background rate is proportional to the fluid injection rate. Quantitative performance evaluation reveals that the standard ETAS captures well the low seismicity rates, but it is substantially outperformed during critical periods of high induced seismicity by the modified model, especially when the latter is parameterized on well-specific seismicity and calibrates the seismic response using sleeve-specific pumping data. The insights from this study contribute towards producing more informative seismicity forecasts during hydraulic fracturing operations.

Citation
Mancini, S., Werner, M. J., Segou, M., & Baptie, B. (2020). Testing the ETAS Model to Forecast the Microseismicity Induced by Hydraulic Fracturing Operations at Preston New Road, UK. TBD, (in preparation).


Related Projects & Working Groups
CSEP, Earthquake Forecasting and Predictability (EFP)