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RELM Testing Center

Danijel Schorlemmer, & Matthew C. Gerstenberger

Published 2007, SCEC Contribution #1036

We describe the organizational setup and the set of rules developed to test earthquake likelihood models of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) initiative. Truly prospective testing for a multitude of forecasts in an unbiased and reproducible way requires a set of rules to be obeyed by each model as well as a cyber-infrastructure: the testing center. These rules encompass free parameters, e.g., the testing area and grid, forecast periods, magnitude ranges, earthquake catalogs provided to the models and used for testing, and declustering. A combination of these free parameters defines a class of models. Within RELM we distinguish between five-year models, one-year models, and one-day models, which issue their forecast for the respective periods. While five-year models provide their forecasts as numbers, one-year and one-day models must be installed in the testing center together with their source code to enable yearly or daily forecast generation. Only with installed models can results be reproduced at any time.

Schorlemmer, D., & Gerstenberger, M. C. (2007). RELM Testing Center. Seismological Research Letters, 78(1), 30-36. doi: 10.1785/gssrl.78.1.30.