Improvements to the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast ETAS Model (UCERF3-ETAS)

Edward H. Field, Kevin R. Milner, Morgan T. Page, William H. Savran, & Nicholas J. van der Elst

Awaiting Publication August 20, 2021, SCEC Contribution #11677

We describe recent improvements to the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast ETAS Model (UCERF3-ETAS), which continues to represent our most advanced and complete earthquake forecast in terms of relaxing segmentation assumptions and representing multi-fault ruptures, elastic-rebound effects, and spatiotemporal clustering (the latter to represent aftershocks and otherwise triggered events). The two main improvements include adding aleatory variability in aftershock productivity and the option to represent off-fault events with finite-rupture surfaces. We also summarize the studies that led to these modifications and reflect on how past and future uses of the model can improve our understanding of earthquake processes and the hazards and risks they pose.

Citation
Field, E. H., Milner, K. R., Page, M. T., Savran, W. H., & van der Elst, N. J. (2021). Improvements to the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast ETAS Model (UCERF3-ETAS). The Seismic Record, (awaiting publication).


Related Projects & Working Groups
WGCEP