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Prospects for Operational Earthquake Forecasting

Thomas H. Jordan

Submitted 2010, SCEC Contribution #1411

The goal of operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) is to provide authoritative information about the time dependence of seismic hazard to help communities prepare for earthquakes. Although reliable and skillful methodologies for deterministic earthquake prediction have not been achieved, probabilistic forecasting based on seismic monitoring can convey useful information about future earthquakes. In some situations, seismicity-based forecasting methods can achieve short-term gain factors of 100-1000 relative to long-term forecasts. A concep-tual framework for OEF in California is discussed that achieves additional gain in ground motion probabilities by utilizing the simulation-based CyberShake model, which accounts for rupture directivity and basin effects.

Jordan, T. H. (2010). Prospects for Operational Earthquake Forecasting. Oral Presentation at 3rd SCEC-ERI Joint Workshop.