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Statistical Tests of VAN Earthquake Predictions: Comments and Reflections

Yan Y. Kagan, & David D. Jackson

Published May 27, 1996, SCEC Contribution #186

The papers in the debate show that precise consideration of whether various events should be considered as having been successfully predicted is one of the key issues for statistical testing of the VAN earthquake prediction efforts. Other issues involve whether the VAN prediction rules have been adjusted retroactively to fit data, how to test the prediction significance and, finally, the criteria for rejection of the null hypothesis - that the VAN successful predictions are due to chance. The diversity of views on these subjects suggests that the seismological community needs a general strategy for evaluating earthquake prediction methods.

Kagan, Y. Y., & Jackson, D. D. (1996). Statistical Tests of VAN Earthquake Predictions: Comments and Reflections. Geophysical Research Letters, 23(11), 1433-1436. doi: 10.1029/95GL03786.