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Nowcasting Oklahoma and The Geysers, California

Molly Luginbuhl, John B. Rundle, & Donald L. Turcotte

Published September 15, 2016, SCEC Contribution #6698, 2016 SCEC Annual Meeting Poster #207 (PDF)

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Nowcasting is a new method of statistically classifying seismicity and seismic risk (Rundle et al., 2016). In this paper, the method is applied to the induced seismicity in Oklahoma and the induced seismicity at The Geysers geothermal region in California. Nowcasting utilizes the catalogs of seismicity in these regions. Two earthquake magnitudes are selected, one small say M > 2, and one large say M > 4. The method utilizes the number of small earthquakes that occur between large earthquakes. The cumulative probability distribution of these values is obtained. The earthquake potential score (EPS) is defined by the number of small earthquakes that have occurred since the last large earthquake, the point where this number falls on the cumulative probability distribution defines the EPS. A major advantage of nowcasting is that it utilizes “natural time”, earthquake counts, between events rather than clock time. For this reason, it is not necessary to decluster aftershocks and the results are applicable if the level of induced seismicity varies in time. The difference in results for The Geysers, Oklahoma and examples of tectonic earthquakes will be given.

Key Words
nowcasting, Oklahoma, The Geysers, induced seismicity

Luginbuhl, M., Rundle, J. B., & Turcotte, D. L. (2016, 09). Nowcasting Oklahoma and The Geysers, California. Poster Presentation at 2016 SCEC Annual Meeting.

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