The impact of model prediction error in designing geodetic networks for crustal deformation applications

Jessica R. Murray

Submitted August 1, 2017, SCEC Contribution #7374, 2017 SCEC Annual Meeting Poster #090

Earth surface displacements measured at Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) sites record crustal deformation due, for example, to slip on faults underground. A primary objective in designing geodetic networks to study crustal deformation is to maximize the ability to recover parameters of interest like fault slip. Given Green’s functions (GFs) relating observed displacement to motion on buried dislocations representing a fault, one can use various methods to estimate spatially variable slip. However, assumptions embodied in the GFs, e.g., use of a simplified elastic structure, introduce spatially correlated model prediction errors (MPE) not reflected in measurement uncertainties (Duputel et al., 2014). In theory, selection algorithms should incorporate inter-site correlations to identify measurement locations that give unique information. I assess the impact of MPE on site selection by expanding existing methods (Klein et al., 2017; Reeves and Zhe, 1999) to incorporate this effect.
Reeves and Zhe’s algorithm sequentially adds or removes a predetermined number of data according to a criterion that minimizes the sum of squared errors (SSE) on parameter estimates. Adapting this method to GNSS network design, Klein et al. select new sites that maximize model resolution, using trade-off curves to determine when additional resolution gain is small. Their analysis uses uncorrelated data errors and GFs for a uniform elastic half space.
I compare results using GFs for spatially variable strike slip on a discretized dislocation in a uniform elastic half space, a layered elastic half space, and a layered half space with inclusion of MPE. I define an objective criterion to terminate the algorithm once the next site removal would increase SSE more than the expected incremental SSE increase if all sites had equal impact. Using a grid of candidate sites with 8 km spacing, I find the relative value of the selected sites (defined by the percent increase in SSE that further removal of each site would cause) is more uniform when MPE is included. However, the number and distribution of selected sites depends primarily on site location relative to the fault. For this test case, inclusion of MPE has minimal practical impact; I will investigate whether these findings hold for more densely spaced candidate grids and dipping faults.

Key Words
geodesy; crustal deformation; modeling methods

Citation
Murray, J. R. (2017, 08). The impact of model prediction error in designing geodetic networks for crustal deformation applications. Poster Presentation at 2017 SCEC Annual Meeting.


Related Projects & Working Groups
Tectonic Geodesy