The Effect of Alternative Seismotectonic Models on PSHA Results – a Sensitivity Study for the Case of Israel

Matan Avital, Michael Davis, Ory Dor, & Ronnie Kamai

Under Review July 30, 2017, SCEC Contribution #7904

We present a full PSHA sensitivity analysis for two sites in southern Israel – one in the near-field of a major fault system and one farther away. The PSHA analysis is conducted for alternative source representations, using alternative model parameters for the main seismic sources, such as slip-rate and Mmax, among others. The analysis also considers the effect of the Ground-Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE) on the hazard results. In this way, the two types of epistemic uncertainty – modelling uncertainty and parametric uncertainty are treated and addressed. We quantify the uncertainty propagation by testing its influence of the final calculated hazard, such that the controlling knowledge gaps are identified and can be treated in future studies. We find that current practice in Israel, as represented by the most current version of the building code grossly underestimates the hazard, due to a combination of factors, including source definitions as well as the GMPE used for analysis.

Citation
Avital, M., Davis, M., Dor, O., & Kamai, R. (2017). The Effect of Alternative Seismotectonic Models on PSHA Results – a Sensitivity Study for the Case of Israel. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, (under review). https://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci-discuss.net/nhess-2017-281/