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The Future Role of Numerical Simulations in RELM Forecasts

John B. Rundle, Donald L. Turcotte, & Paul B. Rundle

In Preparation 2006, SCEC Contribution #940

Current RELM forecasts will utilize current and past observations of observables such as seismicity and surface strain. In weather forecasting, current and past observations are routinely extrapolated forward in order to forecast future weather. The question addressed in this paper is whether a similar use of numerical simulations can be used in earthquake forecasting. Present simulation models are discussed and their ability to successfully generate earthquake recurrence statistics is demonstrated. Future directions for numerical simulations of tectonics and seismicity are discussed.

Rundle, J. B., Turcotte, D. L., & Rundle, P. B. (2006). The Future Role of Numerical Simulations in RELM Forecasts. Seismological Research Letters, (in preparation).