David D. Jackson

University of California, Los Angeles
Professor of Geophysics

Expertise: Seismology, statistics, earthquake forecasting, hypothesis testing
 
 
About Me Publications
Weiser, D., Porto, N. B., & Jackson, D. D. (2017, 08). Can maximum magnitude be derived from fault dimensions?. Poster Presentation at 2017 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 7801
Jackson, D. D. (2017, 08). Prospective test of the 1995 WGCEP SoCal earthquake forecast . Poster Presentation at 2017 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 7443
Kagan, Y. Y., & Jackson, D. D. (2016, 08). Earthquake Number Forecasts Testing . Poster Presentation at 2016 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 6943
Liukis, M., Werner, M. J., Schorlemmer, D., Yu, J., Maechling, P. J., Jackson, D. D., Rhoades, D. A., Zechar, Z. D., Marzocchi, W., Jordan, T. H., & Working Group, t. (2016, 08). Recent Achievements of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability. Poster Presentation at 2016 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 6908
Jackson, D. D. (2016, 09). The bridge from earthquake geology to earthquake seismology. Oral Presentation at 2016 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 6413
Weiser, D. A., & Jackson, D. D. (2015). Maximum Magnitudes of Induced Earthquakes?. Seismological Research Letters, (in preparation). SCEC Contribution 2110
Field, E. H., Jordan, T. H., Page, M. T., Milner, K. R., Shaw, B. E., Dawson, T., Biasi, G. P., Parsons, T., Hardebeck, J. L., Michael, A. J., Weldon, R. J., Powers, P. M., Johnson, K. M., Zeng, Y., Bird, P., Felzer, K. R., van der Elst, N. J., Madden, C., Arrowsmith, R., Werner, M. J., Thatcher, W. R., & Jackson, D. D. (2017). A Synoptic View of the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3). Seismological Research Letters,. doi: 10.1785/0220170045. SCEC Contribution 7165
Kagan, Y. Y., & Jackson, D. D. (2016). GEAR1 forecast: Distribution of largest earthquakes and number test,. Geophysical Journal International, 206(1), 630-643. SCEC Contribution 6228
Strader, A. E., & Jackson, D. D. (2015). Static Coulomb stress-based Southern California earthquake forecasts: A pseudoprospective test. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 120(3), 1667–1676. doi: 10.1002/2014JB011297. SCEC Contribution 2105
Field, E. H., Biasi, G. P., Bird, P., Dawson, T., Felzer, K. R., Jackson, D. D., Johnson, K. M., Jordan, T. H., Madden, C. L., Michael, A. J., Milner, K. R., Page, M. T., Parsons, T., Powers, P. M., Shaw, B. E., Thatcher, W. R., Weldon, R. J., & Zeng, Y. (2015). Long‐Term Time‐Dependent Probabilities for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3). Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 105(2A), 511-543. doi: 10.1785/0120140093. SCEC Contribution 2099
Bird, P., Jackson, D. D., Kagan, Y. Y., Kreemer, C. W., & Stein, R. S. (2015). GEAR1: a Global Earthquake Activity Rate model constructed from geodetic strain rates and smoothed seismicity. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 105(5), 2538-2554. doi: 10.1785/0120150058. SCEC Contribution 2075
Field, E. H., Biasi, G. P., Bird, P., Dawson, T., Felzer, K. R., Jackson, D. D., Johnson, K. M., Jordan, T. H., Madden, C. L., Michael, A. J., Milner, K. R., Page, M. T., Parsons, T., Powers, P. M., Shaw, B. E., Thatcher, W. R., Weldon, R. J., & Zeng, Y. (2015). Long-Term Time-Dependent Probabilities for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF 3). Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 105(2a), 511-543. doi: 10.1785/0120140093. SCEC Contribution 2066
Kagan, Y. Y., & Jackson, D. D. (2015). Likelihood analysis of earthquake focal mechanism distributions. Geophysical Journal International, 201(3), 1409-1415. doi: 10.1093/gji/ggv085. SCEC Contribution 1982
Strader, A. E., & Jackson, D. D. (2014). Near-prospective test of Coulomb stress triggering. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 119(4), 3064-3075. doi: 10.1002/2013JB010780. SCEC Contribution 2104
Kagan, Y. Y., & Jackson, D. D. (2014). Statistical earthquake focal mechanism forecasts. Geophysical Journal International, 197(1), 620-629. doi: 10.1093/gji/ggu015. SCEC Contribution 1967
Werner, M. J., Helmstetter, A., Jackson, D. D., & Kagan, Y. Y. (2013, 9). Short-Term Earthquake Predictability in California. Poster Presentation at SCEC Annual Meeting 2013. SCEC Contribution 1896
Field, E. H., Biasi, G. P., Bird, P., Dawson, T., Felzer, K. R., Jackson, D. D., Johnson, K. M., Jordan, T. H., Madden Madugo, C. L., Michael, A. J., Milner, K. R., Page, M. T., Parsons, T., Powers, P. M., Shaw, B. E., Thatcher, W. R., Weldon, R. J., & Zeng, Y. (2013). Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3)—The Time-Independent Model (1165). , : . SCEC Contribution 1792
Kagan, Y. Y., & Jackson, D. D. (2013). Tohoku earthquake: a surprise?. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 103(2B), 1181-1194. doi: 10.1785/0120120110. SCEC Contribution 1670
Hiemer, S., Jackson, D. D., Wang, Q., Kagan, Y. Y., Woessner, J., Zechar, J. D., & Wiemer, S. (2013). A stochastic forecast of California earthquakes based on fault slip and smoothed seismicity. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 103(2A), 799-810. doi: 10.1785/0120120168. SCEC Contribution 1661
Kagan, Y. Y., Jackson, D. D., & Geller, R. J. (2012). Characteristic earthquake model, 1884 -- 2011, R.I.P.. Seismological Research Letters, 83(6), 951-953. doi: 10.1785/0220120107. SCEC Contribution 1671
Kagan, Y. Y., & Jackson, D. D. (2012). Whole Earth high-resolution earthquake forecasts. Geophysical Journal International, 190(1), 677-686. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2012.05521.x. SCEC Contribution 1634
Jackson, D. D., & Kagan, Y. Y. (2011). Characteristic earthquakes and seismic gaps. , : Springer. doi: 10.1007/978-90-481-8702-7_181. SCEC Contribution 1553
Chu, A., Schoenberg, F. P., Bird, P., Jackson, D. D., & Kagan, Y. Y. (2011). Comparison of ETAS parameter estimates across different global tectonic zones. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 101(5), 2323-2339. doi: 10.1785/0120100115. SCEC Contribution 1476
Werner, M. J., Helmstetter, A., Jackson, D. D., & Kagan, Y. Y. (2011). High Resolution Long-Term and Short-Term Earthquake Forecasts for California. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 101(4), 1630-1648. doi: 10.1785/0120090340. SCEC Contribution 1435
Wang, Q., Jackson, D. D., & Zhuang, J. (2010). Missing links in earthquake clustering models. Geophysical Research Letters, 37, L21307. doi: 10.1029/2010GL044858 . SCEC Contribution 1454
Kagan, Y. Y., & Jackson, D. D. (2010). Global earthquake forecasts. Geophysical Journal International, 184(2), 759-776. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2010.04857.x. SCEC Contribution 1453
Wang, Q., Jackson, D. D., & Kagan, Y. Y. (2010). California Earthquake Forecasts Based on Smoothed Seismicity: Model Choices. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 101(3), 1422-1430. doi: 10.1785/0120100125. SCEC Contribution 1450
Werner, M. J., Helmstetter, A., Jackson, D. D., Kagan, Y. Y., & Wiemer, S. (2010). Adaptively Smoothed Seismicity Earthquake Forecasts for Italy. Annals of Geophysics, 53(3). SCEC Contribution 1437
Wang, Q., Schoenberg, F. P., & Jackson, D. D. (2010). Standard errors of parameter estimates in the ETAS model. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,. SCEC Contribution 1334
Console, R., Jackson, D. D., & Kagan, Y. Y. (2010). Using the ETAS model for catalog declustering and seismic background assessment. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 167(6/7), 819-830. doi: 10.1007/s00024-010-0065-5. SCEC Contribution 1257
Kagan, Y. Y., & Jackson, D. D. (2010). Short- and long-term earthquake forecasts for California and Nevada. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 167(6/7), 685-692. doi: 10.1007/s00024-010-0073-5. SCEC Contribution 1246
Kagan, Y. Y., & Jackson, D. D. (2010). Earthquake forecasting in diverse tectonic zones of the Globe. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 167(6/7), 709-719. doi: 10.1007/s00024-010-0074-4. SCEC Contribution 1245
Kagan, Y. Y., Bird, P., & Jackson, D. D. (2010). Earthquake Patterns in Diverse Tectonic Zones of the Globe. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 167(6/7), 721-741. doi: 10.1007/s00024-010-0075-3. SCEC Contribution 1244
Schorlemmer, D., Zechar, J. D., Werner, M. J., Field, E. H., Jackson, D. D., & Jordan, T. H. (2010). First results of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models experiment. Pure and Applied Geophysics,. SCEC Contribution 1230
Wang, Q., Jackson, D. D., & Zhuang, J. (2009). Are spontaneous earthquakes stationary in California? . Journal of Geophysical Research,. SCEC Contribution 1333
Wang, Q., Jackson, D. D., & Kagan, Y. Y. (2009). California earthquakes, 1800-2007: a unified catalog with moment magnitudes, uncertainties, and focal mechanisms. Seismological Research Letters, 80(3), 446-457. SCEC Contribution 1269
Bird, P., Kagan, Y. Y., Jackson, D. D., Schoenberg, F. P., & Werner, M. J. (2009). Linear and nonlinear relations between relative plate velocity and seismicity. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 99(6), 3097-3113. doi: 10.1785/0120090082. SCEC Contribution 1264
Kagan, Y. Y., Jackson, D. D., & Rong, Y. (2007). A Testable Five-Year Forecast of Moderate and Large Earthquakes in Southern California Based on Smoothed Seismicity. Seismological Research Letters, 78(1), 94-98. doi: 10.1785/gssrl.78.1.94. SCEC Contribution 985
Helmstetter, A., Kagan, Y. Y., & Jackson, D. D. (2007). High-resolution Time-independent Grid-based Forecast for M ≥ 5 Earthquakes in California. Seismological Research Letters, 78(1), 78-86. doi: 10.1785/gssrl.78.1.78. SCEC Contribution 983
Shen, Z., Jackson, D. D., & Kagan, Y. Y. (2007). Implications of Geodetic Strain Rate for Future Earthquakes, with a Five-Year Forecast of M5 Earthquakes in Southern California. Seismological Research Letters, 78(1), 116-120. doi: 10.1785/gssrl.78.1.116. SCEC Contribution 945
Schorlemmer, D., Gerstenberger, M. C., Wiemer, S., Jackson, D. D., & Rhoades, D. A. (2007). Earthquake Likelihood Model Testing. Seismological Research Letters, 78(1), 17-29. doi: 10.1785/gssrl.78.1.17. SCEC Contribution 1035
Jackson, D. D., & Kagan, Y. Y. (2006). The 2004 Parkfield Earthquake, the 1985 Prediction, and Characteristic Earthquakes: Lessons for the Future. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96(4B), S397-S409. doi: 10.1785/0120050821. SCEC Contribution 982
Kagan, Y. Y., & Jackson, D. D. (2006). Comment on 'Testing Earthquake Prediction Methods: "The West Pacific Short-Term Forecast of Earthquakes with Magnitude MwHRV ≥ 5.8"' by V.G. Kossobokov. Tectonophysics, 413(1-2), 33-38. doi: 10.1016/j.tecto.2005.10.007. SCEC Contribution 934
Kagan, Y. Y., Jackson, D. D., & Rong, Y. (2006). A new catalog of southern California earthquakes, 1800-2005. Seismological Research Letters, 77(1), 30-38. SCEC Contribution 931
Helmstetter, A., Kagan, Y. Y., & Jackson, D. D. (2006). Comparison of Short-Term and Time-Independent Earthquake Forecast Models for Southern California. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96(1), 90-106. doi: 10.1785/0120050067. SCEC Contribution 895
Kagan, Y. Y., Jackson, D. D., & Liu, Z. (2005). Stress and earthquakes in southern California, 1850-2004. Journal of Geophysical Research, 110(B05S14). doi: 10.1029/2004JB003313. SCEC Contribution 822
Helmstetter, A., Kagan, Y. Y., & Jackson, D. D. (2005). Importance of small earthquakes for stress transfers and earthquake triggering. Journal of Geophysical Research, 110(B05S08). doi: 10.1029/2004JB003286. SCEC Contribution 805
Schorlemmer, D., Wiemer, S., Wyss, M., & Jackson, D. D. (2004).  Earthquake statistics at Parkfield: 2. Probabilistic forecasting and testing. Journal of Geophysical Research, 109(B12308). doi: 10.1029/2004JB003235. SCEC Contribution 787
Jackson, D. D. (2003). Earthquake Prediction and Forecasting. In S. Sparks (Eds.), AGU Geophysical Monograph Series, "State of the Planet", (, pp. 335-348) Washington, D.C., : American Geophysical Union SCEC Contribution 765
Kagan, Y. Y., Rong, Y., & Jackson, D. D. (2003). Probabilistic Forecasting of Seismicity. In F. Mulargia, & R. J. Geller (Eds.), Earthquake Science and Seismic Risk Reduction, (Chapter 5.2, pp. 185-200) Dordrecht, : Kluwer SCEC Contribution 731
Rong, Y., Jackson, D. D., & Kagan, Y. Y. (2003). Seismic Gaps and Earthquakes. Journal of Geophysical Research, 108(B10), 2471. doi: 10.1029/2002JB002334. SCEC Contribution 725
Rong, Y., & Jackson, D. D. (2002). Earthquake Potential in and around China: Estimated from Past Earthquakes. Geophysical Research Letters, 29(16), 1780. doi: 10.1029/2002GL015297. SCEC Contribution 689
Kagan, Y. Y., & Jackson, D. D. (2000). Probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes. Geophysical Journal International, 143(2), 438-453. doi: 10.1046/j.1365-246X.2000.01267.x. SCEC Contribution 516
Jackson, D. D., & Kagan, Y. Y. (1999). Testable Earthquake Forecasts for 1999. Seismological Research Letters, 70(4), 393-403. SCEC Contribution 484
Kagan, Y. Y., & Jackson, D. D. (1999). Worldwide Doublets of Large Shallow Earthquakes. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 89(5), 1147-1155. SCEC Contribution 476
Field, E. H., Jackson, D. D., & Dolan, J. F. (1999). A Mutually Consistent Seismic-Hazard Source Model for Southern California. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 89(3), 559-578. SCEC Contribution 453
Jackson, D. D., & Kagan, Y. Y. (1998). Spatial aftershock distribution: Effect of normal stress. Journal of Geophysical Research, 103(B10), 24453-24467. SCEC Contribution 426
Jackson, D. D., & Kagan, Y. Y. (1998). VAN method lacks validity. Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union, 79(47), 573. SCEC Contribution 396
Jackson, D. D., Shen, Z., Potter, D., Ge, X., & Sung, L. (1997). Southern California Deformation. Science, 277(5332), 1621-1622. doi: 10.1126/science.277.5332.1621. SCEC Contribution 672
Jackson, D. D., & Kagan, Y. Y. (1997). Response - Cannot earthquakes be predicted?. Science, 278(5337), 487-490. doi: 10.1126/science.278.5337.487. SCEC Contribution 405
Geller, R. J., Jackson, D. D., Kagan, Y. Y., & Mulargia, F. (1997). Earthquakes cannot be predicted. Science, 275(5306), 1616-1617. doi: 10.1126/science.275.5306.1616. SCEC Contribution 404
Bock, Y., Wdowinski, S., Fang, P., Zhang, J., Williams, S., Johnson, H., Behr, J., Genrich, J. F., Dean, J., van Domselaar, M., Agnew, D. C., Wyatt, F. K., Stark, K. F., Oral, B., Hudnut, K. W., King, R. W., Herring, T. A., Dinardo, S., Young, W., Jackson, D. D., & Gurtner, W. (1997). Southern California Permanent GPS Geodetic Array: Continuous measurements of regional crustal deformation between the 1992 Landers and 1994 Northridge earthquakes. Journal of Geophysical Research, 102(B8), 55-61. doi: 10.1029/97JB01379. SCEC Contribution 328b
Prescott, W., Bock, Y., Hudnut, K. W., Watkins, M., Agnew, D. C., Donnellan, A., Fenske, L., Hager, B. H., Jackson, D. D., Mori, J., D’Onofrio, D., Young, B., Webb, F. H., & Wyatt, F. K. (1996). Operations Plan for the Southern California Integrated GPS Network, Fiscal Year, 1996. , USA: U.S. Geological Survey. SCEC Contribution 362
Jackson, D. D. (1996). Hypothesis Testing and Earthquake Prediction. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 93(9), 3772-3775. SCEC Contribution 321
Snay, R., Cline, M. W., Phillipp, R. C., Jackson, D. D., Feng, Y., Shen, Z., & Lisowski, M. (1996). Crustal Velocity Field Near the Big Bend of California's San Andreas Fault. Journal of Geophysical Research, 101(B2), 3173-3185. doi: 10.1029/95JB02394. SCEC Contribution 257
Shen, Z., Jackson, D. D., & Ge, X. (1996). Crustal Deformation Across and Beyond the Los Angeles Basin from Geodetic Measurements. Journal of Geophysical Research, 101(B12), 27,957-27,980. doi: 10.1029/96JB02544. SCEC Contribution 250
Shen, Z., Ge, X., Jackson, D. D., Potter, D., Cline, M. W., & Sung, L. (1996). Northridge Earthquake Rupture Models Based on the Global Positioning System Measurements. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 86(1B, supplement), S37-S48. SCEC Contribution 249
Jackson, D. D. (1996). Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Standards Applied to the VAN Method. Geophysical Research Letters, 23(11), 1363-1366. doi: 10.1029/96GL01439. SCEC Contribution 228
Shen, Z., Ge, X., Jackson, D. D., Potter, D., Cline, M. W., & Sung, L. (1996). Northridge earthquake rupture models based on the global positioning system measurements. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 86(1B), S37-S48. SCEC Contribution 202
Kagan, Y. Y., & Jackson, D. D. (1996). Statistical Tests of VAN Earthquake Predictions: Comments and Reflections. Geophysical Research Letters, 23(11), 1433-1436. doi: 10.1029/95GL03786. SCEC Contribution 186
Jackson, D. D., Aki, K., Cornell, C., Dieterich, J. H., Henyey, T., Mahdyiar, M., Schwartz, D., & Ward, S. N. (1995). Seismic Hazards in Southern California: Probable Earthquakes, 1994 to 2024. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 85(2), 379-439. SCEC Contribution 128
Kagan, Y. Y., & Jackson, D. D. (1995). New Seismic Gap Hypothesis: Five Years After. Journal of Geophysical Research, 100(B3), 3943-3959. SCEC Contribution 126
Hudnut, K. W., Bock, Y., Cline, M. W., Fang, P., Feng, Y., Freymueller, J. T., Ge, X., Gross, K. W., Jackson, D. D., King, N. E., Larsen, S., Shen, Z., Lisowski, M., Zhang, J., & Svarc, J. (1994). Coseismic Displacements of the 1992 Landers Earthquake Sequence. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 84(3), 625-645. SCEC Contribution 94
Kagan, Y. Y., & Jackson, D. D. (1994). Long-Term Probabilistic Forecasting of Earthquakes. Journal of Geophysical Research, 99(B7), 13685-13700. SCEC Contribution 56
Shen, Z., Jackson, D. D., Feng, Y., Cline, M. W., Kim, M., Fang, P., & Bock, Y. (1994). Postseismic Deformation Following the Landers Earthquake, California, 28 June 1992. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America: Special Issue on the Landers Earthquake Sequence, 84(3), 780-791. SCEC Contribution 104
Jackson, D. D. (1993). Plate Tectonics and Crustal Deformation around the Japanese Islands. Journal of Geophysical Research, 98(B9), 16149-16166. SCEC Contribution 72
Jackson, D. D., & Kagan, Y. Y. (1993). Seismic Gap Hypothesis- 10 Years After- Reply [to Nishenko and Sykes]. Journal of Geophysical Research, 98(B6), 9917-9920. SCEC Contribution 67
Shen, Z., & Jackson, D. D. (1993). Global Positioning System Reoccupation of Earthly Triangulation Sites: Tectonic Deformation of the Southern Coast Ranges. Journal of Geophysical Research, 98(B6), 9931-9946. SCEC Contribution 47
Feigl, K. L., Agnew, D. C., Bock, Y., Dong, D., Donnellan, A., Hager, B. H., Herring, T. A., Jackson, D. D., Jordan, T. H., King, R. W., Larsen, S., Larson, K. M., Murray, M., Shen, Z., & Webb, F. H. (1993). Space Geodetic Measurement of Crustal Deformation in Central and Southern California, 1984-1992. Journal of Geophysical Research, 98(B12), 21667-21712. SCEC Contribution 38
Kagan, Y. Y., & Jackson, D. D. (1991). Seismic Gap Hypothesis: Ten Years After. Geophysical Research Letters, 96(B13), 21419-21431. SCEC Contribution 1

Last updated Nov 14, 2017.