Yan Y. Kagan

Department of Earth, Planetary, and Space Sciences
University of California, Los Angeles
Researcher

Expertise: seismology, statistics
 
 
About Me Publications
Kagan, Y. Y., & Jackson, D. D. (2016, 08). Earthquake Number Forecasts Testing . Poster Presentation at 2016 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 6943
Kagan, Y. Y. (2017). Worldwide earthquake forecasts. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA), 31(6), 1273-1290. SCEC Contribution 6260
Kagan, Y. Y. (2016). Earthquake Number Forecasts Testing. arXiv,. SCEC Contribution 7071
Kagan, Y. Y., & Jackson, D. D. (2016). GEAR1 forecast: Distribution of largest earthquakes and number test,. Geophysical Journal International, 206(1), 630-643. SCEC Contribution 6228
Bird, P., Jackson, D. D., Kagan, Y. Y., Kreemer, C. W., & Stein, R. S. (2015). GEAR1: a Global Earthquake Activity Rate model constructed from geodetic strain rates and smoothed seismicity. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 105(5), 2538-2554. doi: 10.1785/0120150058. SCEC Contribution 2075
Kagan, Y. Y., & Jackson, D. D. (2015). Likelihood analysis of earthquake focal mechanism distributions. Geophysical Journal International, 201(3), 1409-1415. doi: 10.1093/gji/ggv085. SCEC Contribution 1982
Kagan, Y. Y., & Jackson, D. D. (2014). Statistical earthquake focal mechanism forecasts. Geophysical Journal International, 197(1), 620-629. doi: 10.1093/gji/ggu015. SCEC Contribution 1967
Werner, M. J., Helmstetter, A., Jackson, D. D., & Kagan, Y. Y. (2013, 9). Short-Term Earthquake Predictability in California. Poster Presentation at SCEC Annual Meeting 2013. SCEC Contribution 1896
Kagan, Y. Y. (2013). Double-couple earthquake source: symmetry and rotation. Geophysical Journal International, 194(2), 1167-1179. doi: 10.1093/gji/ggt156. SCEC Contribution 1747
Kagan, Y. Y., & Jackson, D. D. (2013). Tohoku earthquake: a surprise?. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 103(2B), 1181-1194. doi: 10.1785/0120120110. SCEC Contribution 1670
Hiemer, S., Jackson, D. D., Wang, Q., Kagan, Y. Y., Woessner, J., Zechar, J. D., & Wiemer, S. (2013). A stochastic forecast of California earthquakes based on fault slip and smoothed seismicity. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 103(2A), 799-810. doi: 10.1785/0120120168. SCEC Contribution 1661
Kagan, Y. Y., Jackson, D. D., & Geller, R. J. (2012). Characteristic earthquake model, 1884 -- 2011, R.I.P.. Seismological Research Letters, 83(6), 951-953. doi: 10.1785/0220120107. SCEC Contribution 1671
Kagan, Y. Y., & Jackson, D. D. (2012). Whole Earth high-resolution earthquake forecasts. Geophysical Journal International, 190(1), 677-686. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2012.05521.x. SCEC Contribution 1634
Jackson, D. D., & Kagan, Y. Y. (2011). Characteristic earthquakes and seismic gaps. , : Springer. doi: 10.1007/978-90-481-8702-7_181. SCEC Contribution 1553
Kagan, Y. Y. (2011). Random stress and Omori's law. Geophysical Journal International, 186(3), 1347-1364,. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05114.x. SCEC Contribution 1493
Chu, A., Schoenberg, F. P., Bird, P., Jackson, D. D., & Kagan, Y. Y. (2011). Comparison of ETAS parameter estimates across different global tectonic zones. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 101(5), 2323-2339. doi: 10.1785/0120100115. SCEC Contribution 1476
Werner, M. J., Helmstetter, A., Jackson, D. D., & Kagan, Y. Y. (2011). High Resolution Long-Term and Short-Term Earthquake Forecasts for California. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 101(4), 1630-1648. doi: 10.1785/0120090340. SCEC Contribution 1435
Kagan, Y. Y., & Jackson, D. D. (2010). Global earthquake forecasts. Geophysical Journal International, 184(2), 759-776. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2010.04857.x. SCEC Contribution 1453
Wang, Q., Jackson, D. D., & Kagan, Y. Y. (2010). California Earthquake Forecasts Based on Smoothed Seismicity: Model Choices. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 101(3), 1422-1430. doi: 10.1785/0120100125. SCEC Contribution 1450
Werner, M. J., Helmstetter, A., Jackson, D. D., Kagan, Y. Y., & Wiemer, S. (2010). Adaptively Smoothed Seismicity Earthquake Forecasts for Italy. Annals of Geophysics, 53(3). SCEC Contribution 1437
Kagan, Y. Y. (2010). Earthquake size distribution: power-law with exponent beta = 1/2 ?. Tectonophysics, 490( 1-2), 103-114. doi: 10.1016/j.tecto.2010.04.034. SCEC Contribution 1418
Kagan, Y. Y. (2010). Statistical distributions of earthquake numbers: consequence of branching process. Geophysical Journal International, 180(3), 1313-1328. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2009.04487.x. SCEC Contribution 1304
Console, R., Jackson, D. D., & Kagan, Y. Y. (2010). Using the ETAS model for catalog declustering and seismic background assessment. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 167(6/7), 819-830. doi: 10.1007/s00024-010-0065-5. SCEC Contribution 1257
Kagan, Y. Y., & Jackson, D. D. (2010). Short- and long-term earthquake forecasts for California and Nevada. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 167(6/7), 685-692. doi: 10.1007/s00024-010-0073-5. SCEC Contribution 1246
Kagan, Y. Y., & Jackson, D. D. (2010). Earthquake forecasting in diverse tectonic zones of the Globe. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 167(6/7), 709-719. doi: 10.1007/s00024-010-0074-4. SCEC Contribution 1245
Kagan, Y. Y., Bird, P., & Jackson, D. D. (2010). Earthquake Patterns in Diverse Tectonic Zones of the Globe. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 167(6/7), 721-741. doi: 10.1007/s00024-010-0075-3. SCEC Contribution 1244
Wang, Q., Jackson, D. D., & Kagan, Y. Y. (2009). California earthquakes, 1800-2007: a unified catalog with moment magnitudes, uncertainties, and focal mechanisms. Seismological Research Letters, 80(3), 446-457. SCEC Contribution 1269
Bird, P., Kagan, Y. Y., Jackson, D. D., Schoenberg, F. P., & Werner, M. J. (2009). Linear and nonlinear relations between relative plate velocity and seismicity. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 99(6), 3097-3113. doi: 10.1785/0120090082. SCEC Contribution 1264
Kagan, Y. Y. (2009). On the geometric complexity of earthquake focal zone and fault systems: A statistical study. Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 173(3-4),, 254-268. SCEC Contribution 1256
Kagan, Y. Y. (2009). Testing long-term earthquake forecasts: likelihood methods and error diagrams. Geophysical Journal International, 177(2), 532-542. SCEC Contribution 1252
Kagan, Y. Y., Jackson, D. D., & Rong, Y. (2007). A Testable Five-Year Forecast of Moderate and Large Earthquakes in Southern California Based on Smoothed Seismicity. Seismological Research Letters, 78(1), 94-98. doi: 10.1785/gssrl.78.1.94. SCEC Contribution 985
Helmstetter, A., Kagan, Y. Y., & Jackson, D. D. (2007). High-resolution Time-independent Grid-based Forecast for M ≥ 5 Earthquakes in California. Seismological Research Letters, 78(1), 78-86. doi: 10.1785/gssrl.78.1.78. SCEC Contribution 983
Shen, Z., Jackson, D. D., & Kagan, Y. Y. (2007). Implications of Geodetic Strain Rate for Future Earthquakes, with a Five-Year Forecast of M5 Earthquakes in Southern California. Seismological Research Letters, 78(1), 116-120. doi: 10.1785/gssrl.78.1.116. SCEC Contribution 945
Kagan, Y. Y. (2007). Simplified algorithms for calculating double-couple rotation. Geophysical Journal International, 171(1), 411-418. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2007.03538.x. SCEC Contribution 1092
Kagan, Y. Y. (2007). On Earthquake Predictability Measurement: Information Score and Error Diagram. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 164(10), 1947-1962. doi: 10.1007/s00024-007-0260-1. SCEC Contribution 1058
Kagan, Y. Y. (2007). Earthquake spatial distribution: the correlation dimension. Geophysical Journal International, 168(3), 1175-1194. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2006.03251.x. SCEC Contribution 1033
Jackson, D. D., & Kagan, Y. Y. (2006). The 2004 Parkfield Earthquake, the 1985 Prediction, and Characteristic Earthquakes: Lessons for the Future. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96(4B), S397-S409. doi: 10.1785/0120050821. SCEC Contribution 982
Kagan, Y. Y. (2006). Why Does Theoretical Physics Fail to Explain and Predict Earthquake Occurrence?. Lecture Notes in Physics, 705, 303-359. doi: 10.1007/b11766995. SCEC Contribution 968
Castellaro, S., Mulargia, F., & Kagan, Y. Y. (2006). Regression problems for magnitudes. Geophysical Journal International, 165(3), 913-930. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2006.02955.x. SCEC Contribution 960
Kagan, Y. Y., & Jackson, D. D. (2006). Comment on 'Testing Earthquake Prediction Methods: "The West Pacific Short-Term Forecast of Earthquakes with Magnitude MwHRV ≥ 5.8"' by V.G. Kossobokov. Tectonophysics, 413(1-2), 33-38. doi: 10.1016/j.tecto.2005.10.007. SCEC Contribution 934
Kagan, Y. Y., Jackson, D. D., & Rong, Y. (2006). A new catalog of southern California earthquakes, 1800-2005. Seismological Research Letters, 77(1), 30-38. SCEC Contribution 931
Helmstetter, A., Kagan, Y. Y., & Jackson, D. D. (2006). Comparison of Short-Term and Time-Independent Earthquake Forecast Models for Southern California. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96(1), 90-106. doi: 10.1785/0120050067. SCEC Contribution 895
Kagan, Y. Y., & Houston, H. (2005). Relation between mainshock rupture process and Omori's law for aftershock moment release rate. Geophysical Journal International, 163(3), 1039-1048. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2005.02772.x. SCEC Contribution 922
Kagan, Y. Y. (2005). Double-couple earthquake focal mechanism: Random rotation and display. Geophysical Journal International, 163(3), 1065-1072. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2005.02781.x. SCEC Contribution 876
Kagan, Y. Y., Jackson, D. D., & Liu, Z. (2005). Stress and earthquakes in southern California, 1850-2004. Journal of Geophysical Research, 110(B05S14). doi: 10.1029/2004JB003313. SCEC Contribution 822
Kagan, Y. Y. (2005). Earthquake slip distribution: A statistical model. Journal of Geophysical Research, 110(B05S11). doi: 10.1029/2004JB003280. SCEC Contribution 821
Helmstetter, A., Kagan, Y. Y., & Jackson, D. D. (2005). Importance of small earthquakes for stress transfers and earthquake triggering. Journal of Geophysical Research, 110(B05S08). doi: 10.1029/2004JB003286. SCEC Contribution 805
Zaliapin, I., Kagan, Y. Y., & Schoenberg, F. P. (2005). Approximating the Distribution of Pareto Sums. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 162(6-7), 1187-1228. doi: 10.1007/s00024-004-2666-3. SCEC Contribution 770
Kagan, Y. Y. (2004). Short-Term Properties of Earthquake Catalogs and Models of Earthquake Source. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 94(4), 1207-1228. doi: 10.1785/012003098. SCEC Contribution 750
Bird, P., & Kagan, Y. Y. (2004). Plate-Tectonic Analysis of Shallow Seismicity: Apparent Boundary Width, Beta, Corner Magnitude, Coupled Lithosphere Thickness, and Coupling in Seven Tectonic Settings. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 94(6), 2380-2399. doi: 10.1785/0120030107. SCEC Contribution 749
Kagan, Y. Y., Rong, Y., & Jackson, D. D. (2003). Probabilistic Forecasting of Seismicity. In F. Mulargia, & R. J. Geller (Eds.), Earthquake Science and Seismic Risk Reduction, (Chapter 5.2, pp. 185-200) Dordrecht, : Kluwer SCEC Contribution 731
Rong, Y., Jackson, D. D., & Kagan, Y. Y. (2003). Seismic Gaps and Earthquakes. Journal of Geophysical Research, 108(B10), 2471. doi: 10.1029/2002JB002334. SCEC Contribution 725
Kagan, Y. Y. (2003). Accuracy of Modern Global Earthquake Catalogs. Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, 135(2-3), 173-209. doi: 10.1016/S0031-9201(02)00214-5. SCEC Contribution 691
Kagan, Y. Y. (2002). Modern California Earthquake Catalogs and Their Comparison. Seismological Research Letters, 73, 921-929. SCEC Contribution 693
Kagan, Y. Y. (2002). Seismic Moment Distribution Revisited: II. Moment Conservation Principle. Geophysical Journal International, 149(3), 731-754. doi: 10.1046/j.1365-246X.2002.01671.x. SCEC Contribution 632
Kagan, Y. Y. (2002). Aftershock Zone Scaling. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 92(2), 641-655. doi: 10.1785/0120010172. SCEC Contribution 603
Kagan, Y. Y. (2002). Seismic moment distribution revisited: I. Statistical results. Geophysical Journal International, 148(3), 520-542. doi: 10.1046/j.1365-246x.2002.01594.x . SCEC Contribution 597
Kagan, Y. Y., & Schoenberg, F. P. (2001). Estimation of the Upper Cutoff Parameter for the Tapered Pareto Distribution. Journal of Applied Probability, 38A, 158-175. doi: 10.1239/jap/1085496599. SCEC Contribution 557
Kagan, Y. Y., & Jackson, D. D. (2000). Probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes. Geophysical Journal International, 143(2), 438-453. doi: 10.1046/j.1365-246X.2000.01267.x. SCEC Contribution 516
Kagan, Y. Y. (2000). Temporal correlations of earthquake focal mechanisms. Geophysical Journal International, 143(3), 881-897. doi: 10.1046/j.1365-246X.2000.00281.x . SCEC Contribution 508
Jackson, D. D., & Kagan, Y. Y. (1999). Testable Earthquake Forecasts for 1999. Seismological Research Letters, 70(4), 393-403. SCEC Contribution 484
Kagan, Y. Y., & Jackson, D. D. (1999). Worldwide Doublets of Large Shallow Earthquakes. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 89(5), 1147-1155. SCEC Contribution 476
Kagan, Y. Y. (1999). Universality of the Seismic Moment-Frequency Relation. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 155(2-4), 537-573. doi: 10.1007/s000240050277. SCEC Contribution 455
Kagan, Y. Y. (1999). Is Earthquake Seismology a Hard, Quantitative Science?. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 155(2-4), 233-258. doi: 10.1007/s000240050264. SCEC Contribution 454
Jackson, D. D., & Kagan, Y. Y. (1998). Spatial aftershock distribution: Effect of normal stress. Journal of Geophysical Research, 103(B10), 24453-24467. SCEC Contribution 426
Jackson, D. D., & Kagan, Y. Y. (1998). VAN method lacks validity. Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union, 79(47), 573. SCEC Contribution 396
Jackson, D. D., & Kagan, Y. Y. (1997). Response - Cannot earthquakes be predicted?. Science, 278(5337), 487-490. doi: 10.1126/science.278.5337.487. SCEC Contribution 405
Geller, R. J., Jackson, D. D., Kagan, Y. Y., & Mulargia, F. (1997). Earthquakes cannot be predicted. Science, 275(5306), 1616-1617. doi: 10.1126/science.275.5306.1616. SCEC Contribution 404
Kagan, Y. Y. (1997). Are Earthquakes Predictable?. Geophysical Journal International, 131(3), 505-525. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06595.x. SCEC Contribution 367
Kagan, Y. Y. (1997). Statistical Aspects of Parkfield Earthquake Sequence and Parkfield Prediction Experiment. Tectonophysics, 270(3-4), 207-219. doi: 10.1016/S0040-1951(96)00210-7. SCEC Contribution 291
Kagan, Y. Y. (1997). Earthquake Size Distribution and Earthquake Insurance. Communications in Statistics: Stochastic Models, 13(4), 775-797. doi: 10.1080/15326349708807451. SCEC Contribution 289
Sornette, D., Knopoff, L., & Kagan, Y. Y. (1996). Rank-Ordering Statistics of Extreme Events: Application to the Distribution of Large Earthquakes. Journal of Geophysical Research, 101(B6), 13883-13893. doi: 10.1029/96JB00177. SCEC Contribution 231
Kagan, Y. Y. (1996). Comment of "The Gutenberg-Richter or Characteristic Earthquake Distribution, Which is it?" by S. G. Wesnousky. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 86(1), 274-285. SCEC Contribution 219
Kagan, Y. Y., & Jackson, D. D. (1996). Statistical Tests of VAN Earthquake Predictions: Comments and Reflections. Geophysical Research Letters, 23(11), 1433-1436. doi: 10.1029/95GL03786. SCEC Contribution 186
Kagan, Y. Y. (1996). VAN Earthquake Predictions - An Attempt at Statistical Evaluation. Geophysical Research Letters, 23(11), 1315-1318. doi: 10.1029/95GL03417. SCEC Contribution 185
Kagan, Y. Y. (1995). Magnitude-Frequency Distribution in the European-Mediterranean Earthquake Regions -- Comment. Tectonophysics, 245(1-2), 101-110. doi: 10.1016/0040-1951(94)00129-W. SCEC Contribution 184
Kagan, Y. Y., & Jackson, D. D. (1995). New Seismic Gap Hypothesis: Five Years After. Journal of Geophysical Research, 100(B3), 3943-3959. SCEC Contribution 126
Kagan, Y. Y. (1994). Incremental Stress and Earthquakes. Geophysical Journal International, 117(2), 345-364. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.1994.tb03937.x. SCEC Contribution 66
Kagan, Y. Y., & Jackson, D. D. (1994). Long-Term Probabilistic Forecasting of Earthquakes. Journal of Geophysical Research, 99(B7), 13685-13700. SCEC Contribution 56
Kagan, Y. Y. (1994). Observational Evidence for Earthquakes as a Nonlinear Dynamic Process. Physica D, 77(1-3), 160-192. doi: 10.1016/0167-2789(94)90132-5. SCEC Contribution 106
Jackson, D. D., & Kagan, Y. Y. (1993). Seismic Gap Hypothesis- 10 Years After- Reply [to Nishenko and Sykes]. Journal of Geophysical Research, 98(B6), 9917-9920. SCEC Contribution 67
Kagan, Y. Y. (1993). Statistics of Characteristic Earthquakes. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 83(1), 7-24. SCEC Contribution 5
Molchan, G., & Kagan, Y. Y. (1992). Earthquake Prediction and its Optimization. Journal of Geophysical Research, 97(B4), 4823-4838. SCEC Contribution 4
Kagan, Y. Y. (1992). Seismicity: Turbulence of Solids. Nonlinear Science today, 2(1), 1-13. SCEC Contribution 3
Kagan, Y. Y. (1992). Correlations of Earthquake Focal Mechanisms. Geophysical Journal International, 110(2), 305-320. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.1992.tb00876.x. SCEC Contribution 14
Kagan, Y. Y., & Jackson, D. D. (1991). Seismic Gap Hypothesis: Ten Years After. Geophysical Research Letters, 96(B13), 21419-21431. SCEC Contribution 1

Last updated Jul 17, 2017.