Exciting news! We're transitioning to the Statewide California Earthquake Center. Our new website is under construction, but we'll continue using this website for SCEC business in the meantime. We're also archiving the Southern Center site to preserve its rich history. A new and improved platform is coming soon!

Yan Y. Kagan

Department of Earth, Planetary, and Space Sciences
University of California, Los Angeles
Researcher

Expertise: seismology, statistics
 
 
About Me Publications
Kagan, Y. Y., & Jackson, D. D. (2016, 08). Earthquake Number Forecasts Testing . Poster Presentation at 2016 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 6943
Kagan, Y. Y. (2017). Earthquake number forecasts testing. Geophysical Journal International, 211(1), 335-345. doi: 10.1093/gji/ggx300. SCEC Contribution 8073
Kagan, Y. Y. (2017). Worldwide earthquake forecasts. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA), 31(6), 1273-1290. SCEC Contribution 6260
Kagan, Y. Y., & Jackson, D. D. (2016). Earthquake rate and magnitude distributions of great earthquakes for use in global forecasts. Geophysical Journal International, 206(1), 630-643. SCEC Contribution 8075
Kagan, Y. Y. (2016). Earthquake Number Forecasts Testing. arXiv,. SCEC Contribution 7071
Kagan, Y. Y., & Jackson, D. D. (2016). GEAR1 forecast: Distribution of largest earthquakes and number test,. Geophysical Journal International, 206(1), 630-643. SCEC Contribution 6228
Bird, P., Jackson, D. D., Kagan, Y. Y., Kreemer, C. W., & Stein, R. S. (2015). GEAR1: a Global Earthquake Activity Rate model constructed from geodetic strain rates and smoothed seismicity. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 105(5), 2538-2554. doi: 10.1785/0120150058. SCEC Contribution 2075
Kagan, Y. Y., & Jackson, D. D. (2015). Likelihood analysis of earthquake focal mechanism distributions. Geophysical Journal International, 201(3), 1409-1415. doi: 10.1093/gji/ggv085. SCEC Contribution 1982
Kagan, Y. Y., & Jackson, D. D. (2014). Statistical earthquake focal mechanism forecasts. Geophysical Journal International, 197(1), 620-629. doi: 10.1093/gji/ggu015. SCEC Contribution 1967
Kagan, Y. Y. (2013). EARTHQUAKES: Models, Statistics, Testable Forecasts. Hoboken, USA: Wiley/AGU. doi: 10.1002/9781118637913. SCEC Contribution 8082
Werner, M. J., Helmstetter, A., Jackson, D. D., & Kagan, Y. Y. (2013, 9). Short-Term Earthquake Predictability in California. Poster Presentation at SCEC Annual Meeting 2013. SCEC Contribution 1896
Kagan, Y. Y. (2013). Double-couple earthquake source: symmetry and rotation. Geophysical Journal International, 194(2), 1167-1179. doi: 10.1093/gji/ggt156. SCEC Contribution 1747
Kagan, Y. Y., & Jackson, D. D. (2013). Tohoku earthquake: a surprise?. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 103(2B), 1181-1194. doi: 10.1785/0120120110. SCEC Contribution 1670
Hiemer, S., Jackson, D. D., Wang, Q., Kagan, Y. Y., Woessner, J., Zechar, J. D., & Wiemer, S. (2013). A stochastic forecast of California earthquakes based on fault slip and smoothed seismicity. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 103(2A), 799-810. doi: 10.1785/0120120168. SCEC Contribution 1661
Kagan, Y. Y., Jackson, D. D., & Geller, R. J. (2012). Characteristic earthquake model, 1884 -- 2011, R.I.P.. Seismological Research Letters, 83(6), 951-953. doi: 10.1785/0220120107. SCEC Contribution 1671
Kagan, Y. Y., & Jackson, D. D. (2012). Whole Earth high-resolution earthquake forecasts. Geophysical Journal International, 190(1), 677-686. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2012.05521.x. SCEC Contribution 1634
Jackson, D. D., & Kagan, Y. Y. (2011). Characteristic earthquakes and seismic gaps. , : Springer. doi: 10.1007/978-90-481-8702-7_181. SCEC Contribution 1553
Kagan, Y. Y. (2011). Random stress and Omori's law. Geophysical Journal International, 186(3), 1347-1364,. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05114.x. SCEC Contribution 1493
Chu, A., Schoenberg, F. P., Bird, P., Jackson, D. D., & Kagan, Y. Y. (2011). Comparison of ETAS parameter estimates across different global tectonic zones. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 101(5), 2323-2339. doi: 10.1785/0120100115. SCEC Contribution 1476
Werner, M. J., Helmstetter, A., Jackson, D. D., & Kagan, Y. Y. (2011). High Resolution Long-Term and Short-Term Earthquake Forecasts for California. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 101(4), 1630-1648. doi: 10.1785/0120090340. SCEC Contribution 1435
Kagan, Y. Y., & Jackson, D. D. (2010). Global earthquake forecasts. Geophysical Journal International, 184(2), 759-776. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2010.04857.x. SCEC Contribution 1453
Wang, Q., Jackson, D. D., & Kagan, Y. Y. (2010). California Earthquake Forecasts Based on Smoothed Seismicity: Model Choices. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 101(3), 1422-1430. doi: 10.1785/0120100125. SCEC Contribution 1450
Werner, M. J., Helmstetter, A., Jackson, D. D., Kagan, Y. Y., & Wiemer, S. (2010). Adaptively Smoothed Seismicity Earthquake Forecasts for Italy. Annals of Geophysics, 53(3). SCEC Contribution 1437
Kagan, Y. Y. (2010). Earthquake size distribution: power-law with exponent beta = 1/2 ?. Tectonophysics, 490( 1-2), 103-114. doi: 10.1016/j.tecto.2010.04.034. SCEC Contribution 1418
Kagan, Y. Y. (2010). Statistical distributions of earthquake numbers: consequence of branching process. Geophysical Journal International, 180(3), 1313-1328. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2009.04487.x. SCEC Contribution 1304
Console, R., Jackson, D. D., & Kagan, Y. Y. (2010). Using the ETAS model for catalog declustering and seismic background assessment. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 167(6/7), 819-830. doi: 10.1007/s00024-010-0065-5. SCEC Contribution 1257
Kagan, Y. Y., & Jackson, D. D. (2010). Short- and long-term earthquake forecasts for California and Nevada. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 167(6/7), 685-692. doi: 10.1007/s00024-010-0073-5. SCEC Contribution 1246
Kagan, Y. Y., & Jackson, D. D. (2010). Earthquake forecasting in diverse tectonic zones of the Globe. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 167(6/7), 709-719. doi: 10.1007/s00024-010-0074-4. SCEC Contribution 1245
Kagan, Y. Y., Bird, P., & Jackson, D. D. (2010). Earthquake Patterns in Diverse Tectonic Zones of the Globe. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 167(6/7), 721-741. doi: 10.1007/s00024-010-0075-3. SCEC Contribution 1244
Wang, Q., Jackson, D. D., & Kagan, Y. Y. (2009). California earthquakes, 1800-2007: a unified catalog with moment magnitudes, uncertainties, and focal mechanisms. Seismological Research Letters, 80(3), 446-457. SCEC Contribution 1269
Bird, P., Kagan, Y. Y., Jackson, D. D., Schoenberg, F. P., & Werner, M. J. (2009). Linear and nonlinear relations between relative plate velocity and seismicity. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 99(6), 3097-3113. doi: 10.1785/0120090082. SCEC Contribution 1264
Kagan, Y. Y. (2009). On the geometric complexity of earthquake focal zone and fault systems: A statistical study. Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 173(3-4),, 254-268. SCEC Contribution 1256
Kagan, Y. Y. (2009). Testing long-term earthquake forecasts: likelihood methods and error diagrams. Geophysical Journal International, 177(2), 532-542. SCEC Contribution 1252
Kagan, Y. Y., Jackson, D. D., & Rong, Y. (2007). A Testable Five-Year Forecast of Moderate and Large Earthquakes in Southern California Based on Smoothed Seismicity. Seismological Research Letters, 78(1), 94-98. doi: 10.1785/gssrl.78.1.94. SCEC Contribution 985
Helmstetter, A., Kagan, Y. Y., & Jackson, D. D. (2007). High-resolution Time-independent Grid-based Forecast for M ≥ 5 Earthquakes in California. Seismological Research Letters, 78(1), 78-86. doi: 10.1785/gssrl.78.1.78. SCEC Contribution 983
Shen, Z., Jackson, D. D., & Kagan, Y. Y. (2007). Implications of Geodetic Strain Rate for Future Earthquakes, with a Five-Year Forecast of M5 Earthquakes in Southern California. Seismological Research Letters, 78(1), 116-120. doi: 10.1785/gssrl.78.1.116. SCEC Contribution 945
Kagan, Y. Y. (2007). Simplified algorithms for calculating double-couple rotation. Geophysical Journal International, 171(1), 411-418. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2007.03538.x. SCEC Contribution 1092
Kagan, Y. Y. (2007). On Earthquake Predictability Measurement: Information Score and Error Diagram. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 164(10), 1947-1962. doi: 10.1007/s00024-007-0260-1. SCEC Contribution 1058
Kagan, Y. Y. (2007). Earthquake spatial distribution: the correlation dimension. Geophysical Journal International, 168(3), 1175-1194. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2006.03251.x. SCEC Contribution 1033
Jackson, D. D., & Kagan, Y. Y. (2006). The 2004 Parkfield Earthquake, the 1985 Prediction, and Characteristic Earthquakes: Lessons for the Future. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96(4B), S397-S409. doi: 10.1785/0120050821. SCEC Contribution 982
Kagan, Y. Y. (2006). Why Does Theoretical Physics Fail to Explain and Predict Earthquake Occurrence?. Lecture Notes in Physics, 705, 303-359. doi: 10.1007/b11766995. SCEC Contribution 968
Castellaro, S., Mulargia, F., & Kagan, Y. Y. (2006). Regression problems for magnitudes. Geophysical Journal International, 165(3), 913-930. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2006.02955.x. SCEC Contribution 960
Kagan, Y. Y., & Jackson, D. D. (2006). Comment on 'Testing Earthquake Prediction Methods: "The West Pacific Short-Term Forecast of Earthquakes with Magnitude MwHRV ≥ 5.8"' by V.G. Kossobokov. Tectonophysics, 413(1-2), 33-38. doi: 10.1016/j.tecto.2005.10.007. SCEC Contribution 934
Kagan, Y. Y., Jackson, D. D., & Rong, Y. (2006). A new catalog of southern California earthquakes, 1800-2005. Seismological Research Letters, 77(1), 30-38. SCEC Contribution 931
Helmstetter, A., Kagan, Y. Y., & Jackson, D. D. (2006). Comparison of Short-Term and Time-Independent Earthquake Forecast Models for Southern California. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96(1), 90-106. doi: 10.1785/0120050067. SCEC Contribution 895
Kagan, Y. Y., & Houston, H. (2005). Relation between mainshock rupture process and Omori's law for aftershock moment release rate. Geophysical Journal International, 163(3), 1039-1048. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2005.02772.x. SCEC Contribution 922
Kagan, Y. Y. (2005). Double-couple earthquake focal mechanism: Random rotation and display. Geophysical Journal International, 163(3), 1065-1072. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2005.02781.x. SCEC Contribution 876
Kagan, Y. Y., Jackson, D. D., & Liu, Z. (2005). Stress and earthquakes in southern California, 1850-2004. Journal of Geophysical Research, 110(B05S14). doi: 10.1029/2004JB003313. SCEC Contribution 822
Kagan, Y. Y. (2005). Earthquake slip distribution: A statistical model. Journal of Geophysical Research, 110(B05S11). doi: 10.1029/2004JB003280. SCEC Contribution 821
Helmstetter, A., Kagan, Y. Y., & Jackson, D. D. (2005). Importance of small earthquakes for stress transfers and earthquake triggering. Journal of Geophysical Research, 110(B05S08). doi: 10.1029/2004JB003286. SCEC Contribution 805
Zaliapin, I., Kagan, Y. Y., & Schoenberg, F. P. (2005). Approximating the Distribution of Pareto Sums. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 162(6-7), 1187-1228. doi: 10.1007/s00024-004-2666-3. SCEC Contribution 770
Kagan, Y. Y. (2004). Short-Term Properties of Earthquake Catalogs and Models of Earthquake Source. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 94(4), 1207-1228. doi: 10.1785/012003098. SCEC Contribution 750
Bird, P., & Kagan, Y. Y. (2004). Plate-Tectonic Analysis of Shallow Seismicity: Apparent Boundary Width, Beta, Corner Magnitude, Coupled Lithosphere Thickness, and Coupling in Seven Tectonic Settings. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 94(6), 2380-2399. doi: 10.1785/0120030107. SCEC Contribution 749
Kagan, Y. Y., Rong, Y., & Jackson, D. D. (2003). Probabilistic Forecasting of Seismicity. In F. Mulargia, & R. J. Geller (Eds.), Earthquake Science and Seismic Risk Reduction, (Chapter 5.2, pp. 185-200) Dordrecht, : Kluwer SCEC Contribution 731
Rong, Y., Jackson, D. D., & Kagan, Y. Y. (2003). Seismic Gaps and Earthquakes. Journal of Geophysical Research, 108(B10), 2471. doi: 10.1029/2002JB002334. SCEC Contribution 725
Kagan, Y. Y. (2003). Accuracy of Modern Global Earthquake Catalogs. Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, 135(2-3), 173-209. doi: 10.1016/S0031-9201(02)00214-5. SCEC Contribution 691
Kagan, Y. Y. (2002). Modern California Earthquake Catalogs and Their Comparison. Seismological Research Letters, 73, 921-929. SCEC Contribution 693
Kagan, Y. Y. (2002). Seismic Moment Distribution Revisited: II. Moment Conservation Principle. Geophysical Journal International, 149(3), 731-754. doi: 10.1046/j.1365-246X.2002.01671.x. SCEC Contribution 632
Kagan, Y. Y. (2002). Aftershock Zone Scaling. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 92(2), 641-655. doi: 10.1785/0120010172. SCEC Contribution 603
Kagan, Y. Y. (2002). Seismic moment distribution revisited: I. Statistical results. Geophysical Journal International, 148(3), 520-542. doi: 10.1046/j.1365-246x.2002.01594.x . SCEC Contribution 597
Kagan, Y. Y., & Schoenberg, F. P. (2001). Estimation of the Upper Cutoff Parameter for the Tapered Pareto Distribution. Journal of Applied Probability, 38A, 158-175. doi: 10.1239/jap/1085496599. SCEC Contribution 557
Kagan, Y. Y., & Jackson, D. D. (2000). Probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes. Geophysical Journal International, 143(2), 438-453. doi: 10.1046/j.1365-246X.2000.01267.x. SCEC Contribution 516
Kagan, Y. Y. (2000). Temporal correlations of earthquake focal mechanisms. Geophysical Journal International, 143(3), 881-897. doi: 10.1046/j.1365-246X.2000.00281.x . SCEC Contribution 508
Jackson, D. D., & Kagan, Y. Y. (1999). Testable Earthquake Forecasts for 1999. Seismological Research Letters, 70(4), 393-403. SCEC Contribution 484
Kagan, Y. Y., & Jackson, D. D. (1999). Worldwide Doublets of Large Shallow Earthquakes. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 89(5), 1147-1155. SCEC Contribution 476
Kagan, Y. Y. (1999). Universality of the Seismic Moment-Frequency Relation. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 155(2-4), 537-573. doi: 10.1007/s000240050277. SCEC Contribution 455
Kagan, Y. Y. (1999). Is Earthquake Seismology a Hard, Quantitative Science?. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 155(2-4), 233-258. doi: 10.1007/s000240050264. SCEC Contribution 454
Jackson, D. D., & Kagan, Y. Y. (1998). Spatial aftershock distribution: Effect of normal stress. Journal of Geophysical Research, 103(B10), 24453-24467. SCEC Contribution 426
Jackson, D. D., & Kagan, Y. Y. (1998). VAN method lacks validity. Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union, 79(47), 573. SCEC Contribution 396
Jackson, D. D., & Kagan, Y. Y. (1997). Response - Cannot earthquakes be predicted?. Science, 278(5337), 487-490. doi: 10.1126/science.278.5337.487. SCEC Contribution 405
Geller, R. J., Jackson, D. D., Kagan, Y. Y., & Mulargia, F. (1997). Earthquakes cannot be predicted. Science, 275(5306), 1616-1617. doi: 10.1126/science.275.5306.1616. SCEC Contribution 404
Kagan, Y. Y. (1997). Are Earthquakes Predictable?. Geophysical Journal International, 131(3), 505-525. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06595.x. SCEC Contribution 367
Kagan, Y. Y. (1997). Statistical Aspects of Parkfield Earthquake Sequence and Parkfield Prediction Experiment. Tectonophysics, 270(3-4), 207-219. doi: 10.1016/S0040-1951(96)00210-7. SCEC Contribution 291
Kagan, Y. Y. (1997). Earthquake Size Distribution and Earthquake Insurance. Communications in Statistics: Stochastic Models, 13(4), 775-797. doi: 10.1080/15326349708807451. SCEC Contribution 289
Sornette, D., Knopoff, L., & Kagan, Y. Y. (1996). Rank-Ordering Statistics of Extreme Events: Application to the Distribution of Large Earthquakes. Journal of Geophysical Research, 101(B6), 13883-13893. doi: 10.1029/96JB00177. SCEC Contribution 231
Kagan, Y. Y. (1996). Comment of "The Gutenberg-Richter or Characteristic Earthquake Distribution, Which is it?" by S. G. Wesnousky. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 86(1), 274-285. SCEC Contribution 219
Kagan, Y. Y., & Jackson, D. D. (1996). Statistical Tests of VAN Earthquake Predictions: Comments and Reflections. Geophysical Research Letters, 23(11), 1433-1436. doi: 10.1029/95GL03786. SCEC Contribution 186
Kagan, Y. Y. (1996). VAN Earthquake Predictions - An Attempt at Statistical Evaluation. Geophysical Research Letters, 23(11), 1315-1318. doi: 10.1029/95GL03417. SCEC Contribution 185
Kagan, Y. Y. (1995). Magnitude-Frequency Distribution in the European-Mediterranean Earthquake Regions -- Comment. Tectonophysics, 245(1-2), 101-110. doi: 10.1016/0040-1951(94)00129-W. SCEC Contribution 184
Kagan, Y. Y., & Jackson, D. D. (1995). New Seismic Gap Hypothesis: Five Years After. Journal of Geophysical Research, 100(B3), 3943-3959. SCEC Contribution 126
Kagan, Y. Y. (1994). Incremental Stress and Earthquakes. Geophysical Journal International, 117(2), 345-364. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.1994.tb03937.x. SCEC Contribution 66
Kagan, Y. Y., & Jackson, D. D. (1994). Long-Term Probabilistic Forecasting of Earthquakes. Journal of Geophysical Research, 99(B7), 13685-13700. SCEC Contribution 56
Kagan, Y. Y. (1994). Observational Evidence for Earthquakes as a Nonlinear Dynamic Process. Physica D, 77(1-3), 160-192. doi: 10.1016/0167-2789(94)90132-5. SCEC Contribution 106
Jackson, D. D., & Kagan, Y. Y. (1993). Seismic Gap Hypothesis- 10 Years After- Reply [to Nishenko and Sykes]. Journal of Geophysical Research, 98(B6), 9917-9920. SCEC Contribution 67
Kagan, Y. Y. (1993). Statistics of Characteristic Earthquakes. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 83(1), 7-24. SCEC Contribution 5
Molchan, G., & Kagan, Y. Y. (1992). Earthquake Prediction and its Optimization. Journal of Geophysical Research, 97(B4), 4823-4838. SCEC Contribution 4
Kagan, Y. Y. (1992). Seismicity: Turbulence of Solids. Nonlinear Science today, 2(1), 1-13. SCEC Contribution 3
Kagan, Y. Y. (1992). Correlations of Earthquake Focal Mechanisms. Geophysical Journal International, 110(2), 305-320. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.1992.tb00876.x. SCEC Contribution 14
Kagan, Y. Y., & Jackson, D. D. (1991). Seismic Gap Hypothesis: Ten Years After. Geophysical Research Letters, 96(B13), 21419-21431. SCEC Contribution 1

Last updated Jun 25, 2018.