Exciting news! We're transitioning to the Statewide California Earthquake Center. Our new website is under construction, but we'll continue using this website for SCEC business in the meantime. We're also archiving the Southern Center site to preserve its rich history. A new and improved platform is coming soon!
Andrew J. Michael
United States Geological Survey
Geophysicist
Expertise: earthquake seismology
About Me
Publications
See my USGS profile, link is to the right called "website."
SCEC Participation
SCEC Mentor (2002)Schneider, M., Wein, A., van der Elst, N. J., McBride, S. K., Becker, J. S., Castro, R. R., Diaz, M., Gonzalez-Huizar, H., Hardebeck, J. L., Michael, A. J., Mixco, L., Page, M. T., & Palomo, J. (2023, 09). Visual Communication of Aftershock Forecasts Driven by User Needs . Poster Presentation at 2023 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 13289
Costa, O. R., & Michael, A. J. (2023, 09). Aftershock forecasting in Hawai`i: accounting for a complex mix of tectonic and magmatic processes.. Poster Presentation at 2023 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 12827
Franco, A., Elliott, A. J., Garcia, S., Scharer, K. M., Murray, J. R., McClain, A., & Michael, A. J. (2022, 09). Re-enfranchising communities in the wake of COVID-19: Lessons learned during the pandemic for reaching underserved schools with earthquake science. Poster Presentation at 2022 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 12348
Schneider, M., Guttorp, P., van der Elst, N. J., Barall, M. J., Michael, A. J., Hardebeck, J. L., & Page, M. T. (2022, 09). Bayesian ETAS for Improved Earthquake Rate Models for the Pacific Northwest. Poster Presentation at 2022 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 12235
van der Elst, N. J., McBride, S. K., Hardebeck, J. L., Michael, A. J., & Page, M. T. (2021, 08). Communicating Aftershock Forecasts for Situational Awareness During Humanitarian Response. Poster Presentation at 2021 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 11307
Paris, G., & Michael, A. J. (2021, 08). An Interactive Web Tool to Visualize and Improve USGS Operational Aftershock Forecasts. Poster Presentation at 2021 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 11301
Savran, W. H., Werner, M. J., Rhoades, D. A., Jackson, D. D., Field, E. H., Milner, K. R., Michael, A. J., Jordan, T. H., & Maechling, P. J. (2019, 08). Pseudo-Prospective Evaluation of Operational UCERF3-ETAS Forecasts during the Ridgecrest, California, Earthquake Sequence. Poster Presentation at 2019 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 9576
Barall, M., Michael, A. J., & Hardebeck, J. L. (2019, 08). The USGS Automatic Aftershock Forecasting System. Poster Presentation at 2019 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 9562
Llenos, A. L., Michael, A. J., Moschetti, M. P., Mueller, C. S., Petersen, M. D., & Shumway, A. M. (2019, 08). Assessing declustering methods in Hawaii for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. Poster Presentation at 2019 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 9523
Hardebeck, J. L., Michael, A. J., Page, M. T., van der Elst, N. J., Barall, M., Llenos, A. L., Martinez, E. M., & McBride, S. K. (2019, 08). Aftershock forecasts following the M6.4 and M7.1 Ridgecrest, California, earthquakes of July 2019. Poster Presentation at 2019 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 9467
Hardebeck, J. L., Llenos, A. L., Michael, A. J., Page, M. T., & van der Elst, N. J. (2018, 08). Updated California Aftershock Parameters. Poster Presentation at 2018 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 8361
Llenos, A. L., Michael, A. J., Page, M. T., van der Elst, N. J., & McBride, S. K. (2018, 07). The earthquake rates they are a-changin’: Improving forecasts during earthquake swarms. Poster Presentation at 2018 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 8226
Llenos, A. L., & Michael, A. J. (2017, 07). Space-time earthquake rate models for one-year hazard forecasts in Oklahoma. Poster Presentation at 2017 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 7357
Field, E. H., Milner, K. R., Hardebeck, J. L., Page, M. T., van der Elst, N. J., Jordan, T. H., Michael, A. J., Shaw, B. E., & Werner, M. J. (2016, 08). A Spatiotemporal Clustering Model for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3-ETAS) – Toward an Operational Earthquake Forecast. Poster Presentation at 2016 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 6920
Llenos, A. L., & Michael, A. J. (2016, 07). Evaluating the use of declustering for induced seismicity hazard assessment. Poster Presentation at 2016 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 6403
Field, E. H., Jordan, T. H., Jones, L. M., Michael, A. J., & Blanpied, M. L. (2015). The Potential Uses of Operational Earthquake Forecasting. Seismological Research Letters, (in preparation). SCEC Contribution 6029
Field, E. H., Milner, K. R., Hatem, A., Powers, P. M., Pollitz, F. F., Llenos, A. L., Zeng, Y., Johnson, K. M., Shaw, B. E., McPhillips, D., Thompson, J., Shumway, A. M., Michael, A. J., Shen, Z., Evans, E. L., Hearn, E. H., Mueller, C. S., Frankel, A., Petersen, M. D., DuRoss, C. B., Briggs, R., Page, M. T., Rubinstein, J. L., & Herrick, J. (2023). The USGS 2023 Conterminous U.S. Time‐Independent Earthquake Rupture Forecast. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,. doi: 10.1785/0120230120. SCEC Contribution 13392
Petersen, M. D., Shumway, A. M., Powers, P. M., Field, E. H., Moschetti, M. P., Jaiswal, K. S., Milner, K. R., Rezaeian, S., Frankel, A., Llenos, A. L., Michael, A. J., Altekruse, J., Ahdi, S. K., Withers, K. B., Mueller, C. S., Zeng, Y., Chase, R., Salditch, L., Luco, N., Rukstales, K. S., Herrick, J. A., Girot, D. L., Aagaard, B. T., Bender, A. M., Blanpied, M. L., Briggs, R., Boyd, O. S., Clayton, B. S., DuRoss, C. B., Evans, E. L., Haeussler, P., Hatem, A., Haynie, K. L., Hearn, E. H., Johnson, K. M., Kortum, Z. A., Kwong, N. S., Makdisi, A. J., Mason, B., McNamara, D., McPhillips, D., Okubo, P., Page, M. T., Pollitz, F. F., Rubinstein, J. L., Shaw, B. E., Shen, Z., Shiro, B., Smith, J. A., Stephenson, W. J., Thompson, E. M., Thompson Jobe, J. A., Wirth, E., & Witter, R. C. (2023). The 2023 US 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model: Overview and implications. Earthquake Spectra,. doi: 10.1177/87552930231215428. SCEC Contribution 13391
Hauksson, E., Olson, B., Grant, A., Andrews, J. R., Chung, A. I., Hough, S. E., Kanamori, H., McBride, S. K., Michael, A. J., Page, M. T., Ross, Z. E., Smith, D. E., & Valkaniotis, S. N. (2020). The Normal-Faulting 2020 Mw 5.8 Lone Pine, Eastern California, Earthquake Sequence. Seismological Research Letters, 92(2A), 679-698. doi: 10.1785/0220200324. SCEC Contribution 11888
Savran, W. H., Werner, M. J., Marzocchi, W., Rhoades, D. A., Jackson, D. D., Milner, K., Field, E., & Michael, A. (2020). Pseudoprospective Evaluation of UCERF3-ETAS Forecasts during the 2019 Ridgecrest Sequence. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 110(4), 1799-1817. doi: 10.1785/0120200026. SCEC Contribution 10082
Michael, A. J., & Werner, M. J. (2018). Preface to the Focus Section on the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP): New Results and Future Directions. Seismological Research Letters, 89(4), 1226-1228. doi: 10.1785/0220180161. SCEC Contribution 8086
Field, E. H., Jordan, T. H., Jones, L. M., Michael, A. J., & Blanpied, M. L. (2017). The potential uses of operational earthquake forecasting. Seismological Research Letters, 87(2a), 313-322. doi: 10.1785/0220150174. SCEC Contribution 7292
Field, E. H., Jordan, T. H., Page, M. T., Milner, K. R., Shaw, B. E., Dawson, T. E., Biasi, G. P., Parsons, T., Hardebeck, J. L., Michael, A. J., Weldon, R. J., Powers, P. M., Johnson, K. M., Zeng, Y., Felzer, K. R., van der Elst, N. J., Madden, C., Arrowsmith, R., Werner, M. J., & Thatcher, W. R. (2017). A Synoptic View of the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3). Seismological Research Letters, 88(5), 1259-1267. doi: 10.1785/0220170045. SCEC Contribution 7165
Field, E. H., Milner, K. R., Hardebeck, J. L., Page, M. T., van der Elst, N. J., Jordan, T. H., Michael, A. J., Shaw, B. E., & Werner, M. J. (2017). A Spatiotemporal Clustering Model for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3-ETAS): Toward an Operational Earthquake Forecast. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 107(3), 1049-1081. doi: 10.1785/0120110177. SCEC Contribution 7163
Field, E. H., Biasi, G. P., Bird, P., Dawson, T., Felzer, K. R., Jackson, D. D., Johnson, K. M., Jordan, T. H., Madden, C. L., Michael, A. J., Milner, K. R., Page, M. T., Parsons, T., Powers, P. M., Shaw, B. E., Thatcher, W. R., Weldon, R. J., & Zeng, Y. (2015). Long‐Term Time‐Dependent Probabilities for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3). Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 105(2A), 511-543. doi: 10.1785/0120140093. SCEC Contribution 2099
Field, E. H., Biasi, G. P., Bird, P., Dawson, T., Felzer, K. R., Jackson, D. D., Johnson, K. M., Jordan, T. H., Madden, C. L., Michael, A. J., Milner, K. R., Page, M. T., Parsons, T., Powers, P. M., Shaw, B. E., Thatcher, W. R., Weldon, R. J., & Zeng, Y. (2015). Long-Term Time-Dependent Probabilities for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF 3). Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 105(2a), 511-543. doi: 10.1785/0120140093. SCEC Contribution 2066
Field, E. H., Biasi, G. P., Bird, P., Dawson, T., Felzer, K. R., Jackson, D. D., Johnson, K. M., Jordan, T. H., Madden Madugo, C. L., Michael, A. J., Milner, K. R., Page, M. T., Parsons, T., Powers, P. M., Shaw, B. E., Thatcher, W. R., Weldon, R. J., & Zeng, Y. (2013). Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3)—The Time-Independent Model (1165). , : . SCEC Contribution 1792
Kilb, D. L., Peng, Z., Simpson, D., Michael, A. J., Fisher, M., & Rohrlick, D. (2012). Listen, watch, learn: SeisSound video products. Seismological Research Letters, 83(2), 281-286. doi: 10.1785/gssrl.83.2.281. SCEC Contribution 1562
Hardebeck, J. L., & Michael, A. J. (2006). Damped regional-scale stress inversions: Methodology and examples for southern California and the Coalinga aftershock sequence. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 111(B11). doi: 10.1029/2005JB004144. SCEC Contribution 9086
Bakun, W., Aagaard, B. T., Dost, B., Ellsworth, W. L., Hardebeck, J. L., Harris, R. A., Ji, C., Johnston, M., Langbein, J. O., Lienkaemper, J. J., Michael, A. J., Murray, J. R., Nadeau, R. M., Reichle, M., Reasenberg, P., Roeloffs, E., Shakal, A., Simpson, R. W., & Waldhauser, F. (2005). Implications for prediction and hazard assessment from the 2004 Parkfield earthquake. Nature, 437(13 October 2005), 969-974. doi: 10.1038/nature04067. SCEC Contribution 920
Peng, Z., Ben-Zion, Y., Michael, A. J., & Zhu, L. (2003). Quantitative analysis of seismic trapped waves in the rupture zone of the 1992 Landers, California earthquake: Evidence for a shallow trapping structure. Geophysical Journal International, 155(3), 1021-1041. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2003.02109.x. SCEC Contribution 852
Jones, L. M., Aki, K., Celebi, M., Donnellan, A., Hall, J. F., Harris, R. A., Hauksson, E., Heaton, T. H., Hough, S. E., Hudnut, K. W., Hutton, K., Johnston, M., Joyner, W., Marshall, G., Michael, A. J., Murray, M., Ponti, D. J., Reasenberg, P., Seeber, L., Shakal, A., Mori, J., Thio, H., Todorovska, M. I., Trifunac, M. D., Wald, D. J., & Zoback, M. (1994). The Magnitude 6.7 Northridge, California, Earthquake of January 17, 1994. Science, 266(5184), 389-397. doi: 10.1126/science.266.5184.389. SCEC Contribution 139
Last updated Apr 02, 2024.
