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SCEC Community Workshop: Incorporating Geodetic Surface Deformation Data into UCERF3

Conveners: Kaj Johnson, Liz Hearn, David Sandwell, and Wayne Thatcher
Dates: April 1-2, 2010
Location: Kellogg West Conference Center and Lodge, Pomona, CA

WORKSHOP REPORT: Download workshop report

SUMMARY: The purpose of the workshop is to begin scientific consideration of how to incorporate GPS constraints on strain rates and fault slip rates into the next generation California earthquake hazard assessment ("UCERF3"). A principal outcome of the meeting will be (1) an assessment of secure science ready for UCERF3 applications, and (2) an agenda of new research objectives for SCEC in support of UCERF3 and related probabilistic hazard assessments.

The format of the workshop includes three topical sessions, with limited number of invited presentations scheduled and lots of open discussion time, and an evening poster session. Time is allotted for groups to discuss main scientific issues:

  • Earthquake cycle deformation and influence of postseismic transients
  • Strain rate map methodologies and issues
  • Block modeling methodologies and GPS fault slip rate estimation
  • Reconciliation of differing GPS fault slip and strain rate estimates

All participants were requested to submit poster presentation. A small number of short (~5 minute) presentations were solicited from the submitted poster abstracts.

Actual (e.g. SCEC CMM4 GPS field) or synthetic test data sets were distributed prior to the workshop for modeling test cases. Kinematic and dynamical fault modelers, strain rate mappers, and block modelers thus were able to run their codes to supply outputs for discussion at the workshop.

PARTICIPANTS: Duncan Agnew (UCSD), Sean Baxter (NASA JPL), John Beavan (GNS Science), Rick Bennett (Arizona), Peter Bird (UCLA), Jayne Bormann (UNR), Tim Dawson (CGS), Jim Dieterich (UCR), James Dolan (USC), Yuri Fialko (UCSD), Ned Field (USGS), Brad Hager (MIT), Bill Hammond (UNR), Elizabeth Hearn (UBC), Tom Herring (MIT), Eric Hetland (Michigan), Bill Holt (Stony Brook), Benjamin Hooks (Texas at El Paso), Tran Huynh (USC), David Jackson (UCLA), Kaj Johnson (Indiana), Tom Jordan (USC), Sharon Kedar (NASA JPL), Jack Loveless (Harvard), Scott Marshall (App State), Stephane Mazzotti (GSC), Rob McCaffrey (RPI), Brendan Meade (Harvard), Jessica Murray-Moraleda (USGS), Marleen Nyst (RMS), Mike Oskin (UC Davis), John Platt (USC), Fred Pollitz (USGS), Tom Rockwell (SDSU), Takeshi Sagiya (Nagoya U), David Sandwell (UCSD), Gina Schmalzle (Washington), David Schwartz (USGS), Zheng-Kang Shen (UCLA), Bridget Smith-Konter (Texas at El Paso), Wayne Thatcher (USGS), Laura Wallace (GNS Science), Ray Weldon (Oregon), Yuehua Zeng (USGS)

DAY 1: Thursday, April 1, 2010  
  Introductory Remarks  
08:00 Workshop goals, format, and desired outcomes Wayne Thatcher
08:20 Purpose of UCERF3 and potential role of space geodesy Ned Field
08:40 Questions and Discussion  
  Session 1. Strain Rate Mapping Methodologies and Issues David Sandwell
09:00 The science of constructing strain rate maps David Sandwell
09:30 Open Discussion  
10:00 Selected Short Contributions (each 5 mins max, Hammond, Smith-Konter, Loveless, Shen, and Tom Herring)  
10:30 Break  
10:45 Results of community modeling exercise David Sandwell
11:15 Open Discussion of community modeling results Thorsten Becker, Peter Bird, Andy Freed, Jack Loveless, Bill Holt, Sharon Kedar, Cornee Kreemer, Rob McCaffrey, Fred Pollitz, Bridget Smith-Konter, Carl Tape, Yuehua Zeng
12:00 Lunch  
  Session 2. GPS Fault Slip Rate Estimation from Block Models Kaj Johnson
13:00 Block modeling overview Kaj Johnson
13:15 Fault geometry and elastic block models Brendan Meade
13:30 NeoKinema Model predictions for California strain and slip rates Peter Bird
13:45 Open Discussion  
14:45 Selected Short Contributions (each 5 mins max, Laura Wallace, Takeshi Sagiya, Wayne Thatcher, and Yuehua Zeng)  
14:45 Break  
15:00 Selected Short Contributions (each 5 mins max, Rob McCaffrey, Bill Hammond/Jayne Bormann)  
15:15 Results of community modeling exercise Kaj Johnson
15:30 Open Discussion of community modeling results  
16:00 Breakout sessions
  • Effect of transients and elastic heterogeneity on earthquake cycle deformation
  • GPS slip rate estimation: Secure science and new research directions
  • Strain rate field estimation: Secure science and new research directions
17:00 Adjourn  
18:00 Dinner  
19:00 Poster Session (2 hours)  
DAY 2: Friday, April 2, 2010  
  Session 3. Earthquake Cycle and Other Effects on Interseismic Deformation Liz Hearn
08:00 How much do earthquake cycles effects influence geodetic estimates of stressing and fault slip rates? Liz Hearn
08:30 Physics-based models of interseismic deformation: What physics is relevant? Yuri Fialko
09:00 Open Discussion  
09:30 Selected Short Contributions (each 5 mins max, Gina Schmalze, Brad Hager)  
10:00 Break  
10:30 Results of community modeling exercise Liz Hearn
Hetland, Meade, Smith-Konter, Johnson, Fialko, Hearn
11:00 Open Discussion of community modeling results  
11:30 Reports of breakout group chairs  
12:00 Lunch  
13:00 Invited Presentation: Geologic slip rate estimation Ray Weldon
13:30 Discussion: Geologic and GPS slip rates -- What next?  
14:00 Wrap-Up Session: Directed Discussion
  • Next steps for reconciling strain rate maps
  • Next steps for reconciling geodetic estimates of fault slip rate
Wayne Thatcher, Kaj Johnson, Liz Hearn, David Sandwell
15:00 Workshop Adjourn  
15:30 Conveners meet to draft Workshop Summary (1.5 hours)