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SCEC Community Workshop: SCEC Earthquake Simulators Workshop

Convener: Terry Tullis
Dates: July 20, 2010
Location: Davidson Continuing Education Conference Center
Participants: by invitation
SCEC Award and Report: 10165

SUMMARY: This workshop is intended primarily for those who are participating in the SCEC Collaborative Project on Comparison, Verification, and Validation of Earthquake Simulators. We will look at the status of our comparisons on several problems that we are presently working on and will consider what our next work should be. The problems under investigation include 1) ones on single faults for which the differences can be examined in detail, and 2) large multiple-fault problems for which only statistical comparisons are possible. Current multiple-fault problems are a simplified Northern California model having only strike slip faults and an all California problem using the UCERF2 fault model. The hope is that the results of such Earthquake Simulators might be used as part of the input to the UCERF3 deliberations. Before that can be done with some confidence we need to determine how the different simulators compare with one another and with historic and paleoseismic data.

TUESDAY, July 20, 2010

  Morning Session - Some Results  
09:00 Welcome and Introduction: Purpose of Fourth Workshop T. Tullis
09:05 Discussion of Status of Problems 2 and 3:
Problem 2b (i.e. Problem 2, rate and state) (PDF, 3.2MB)
Problem 3: Introduction (PDF, 324.5kB)
Problem 3: Rate and State Dependent Friction Law (PDF, 1.0MB)
Problem 3: Models on Two Fronts (PDF, 1.8MB) and Movies Files
Problem 3: Comparing Models with Phase Plots (PDF, 41.4kB)
Analysis for Problem 3 (PDF, 255.4kB)
T. Tullis
T. Tullis
T. Tullis
H. Noda
S. Ward
B. Shaw
D. Turcotte & E. Heien
10:00 Break  
10:30 Earthquake Simulator Comparison, Northern CA (PDF, 19.4MB) T. Tullis
12:00 Lunch  
  Afternoon Session - More Results and Future Plans  
13:30 Earthquake Simulator Comparison, All of CA (PDF, 1.1MB) T. Tullis
14:40 How do We Compare Simulator Results with Seismic and Paleoseismic Data? (PDF, 881.2kB) L. Grant
15:00 Break  
15:30 What Additional Statistical Comparison Tools Do We Need? (PDF, 6.1MB)
  • Multi-Segment Rupture and Segment-Jumping-Distance?
  • Nearby Earthquake Occurrence Following Significant Events?
  • Rupture Directivity?
  • Event to Event Variability in Slip Distribution Along Fault Segments?
J. Parker
16:00 Testing Physical Simulator Models (PDF, 1.0MB) D. Jackson
16:30 Define Next Problems to Work on
  • Relatively Simple Problems
  • More Detailed/Complex All California Models
17:00 Adjourn