Conveners: Ned Field and the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities
Dates: April 6, 8, 2011
Location: Building 3 Auditorium, USGS Campus, Menlo Park, CA (NoCal)
  Mountain Vista Room, Kellogg West Conference Center, Pomona, CA (SoCal)

The Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP) is in the process of building the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, version 3 (UCERF3).  One of the anticipated improvements UCERF3 is the relaxation of fault segmentation and the inclusion of multi-fault ruptures in the earthquake rate model using a formal inversion approach, referred to colloquially as the “Grand Inversion”.  Central to this, with regards to geologic data, is the Fault Model, which will define the geometry of faults and paleoseismic data, which are used to define the rates and types of ruptures within the model. 

Two regional workshops – in southern California (April 6) and in northern California (April 8) – will be held to present the new Statewide Community Fault Model (SCFM), solicit input from the scientific community regarding improvements to the fault model, and discuss integration of SCFM into the UCERF3 fault and deformation models.  The workshops will also focus on the use of paleoseismic data, such as slip rates, recurrence intervals, timing of events, and slip-per-event, as constraints in the inversion approach being pursued by UCERF3.