Conveners: Tom Jordan (SCEC/USC), Tom Bleier (Quakefinder), Andrew Michael (USGS), and Max Werner (Princeton)
Dates: May 7-8, 2013
Location: Boardroom, Davidson Conference Center, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA
Participation: 41 total

SYNOPSIS: The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP), operated by the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC), provides an automated infrastructure for the blind prospective testing of earthquake forecasts. The only time-dependent forecasting procedures currently accommodated by CSEP are those that run automatically on CSEP computers and use seismicity data for updating the forecasts. To extend the range of forecasting models and CSEP testing capabilities, SCEC has undertaken a project, funded by the Department of Homeland Security, to develop a facility for registering and testing external forecasting and prediction (EFP) procedures; i.e., those run outside the extant CSEP. This facility will allow investigators to document their methods and submit forecasts and predictions for retrospective and prospective testing in accordance with collaboratory standards.

The purposes of this workshop are threefold: (a) assess community needs for CSEP-based testing of EFP procedures; (b) gather community input on the design of an EFP registration and testing system; and (c) encourage modeling groups to participate in specific experiments to test their own external forecasts and predictions.

The workshop will bring together CSEP personnel, scientists interested in conducting formal evaluations of their forecasts, scientists interested in EFP testing procedures, and agency representatives. The agenda for the two-day workshop will include session on the following topics:

1. Status and requirements for operational earthquake forecasting (OEF)
2. Current CSEP capabilities
3. Review of earthquake forecasts currently under CSEP testing
4. Reports by EFP developers on the status of forecasting/prediction experiments
5. Requirements for EFP registration into CSEP; acceptance testing; testing against reference models
6. Break-out group discussions of prototype EFP experiments
7. Recommendations from break-out groups for prototype EFP experiments
8. Standardization of EFP metadata, submission formats, and acceptance tests; model classes and reference models

Presentation slides may be downloaded by clicking the links following the title. PLEASE NOTE: Files are the author’s property. They may contain unpublished or preliminary information and should only be used while viewing the talk.

TUESDAY, MAY 7, 2013

This workshop will be followed by the SCEC CSEP Technical Planning Meeting: Priorities, Technical Implementation and Next Steps on May 8-9, 2013.

PARTICIPANTS

SCEC CSEP Technical Planning Meeting: Priorities, Technical Implementation and Next Steps
Conveners: Tom Jordan (USC/SCEC), Phil Maechling (USC/SCEC), Andy Michael (USGS), Danijel Schorlemmer (GFZ), Max Werner (Princeton)
Dates: May 8-9, 2013
Location: Boardroom, Davidson Conference Center, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA

SYNOPSIS: The CSEP Workshop on Testing External Forecasts and Predictions (EFPs), taking place immediately prior to this technical planning meeting, is expected to result in recommendations for prototype EFP experiments. Given the scope and broad participation in the workshop, this smaller follow-up meeting amongst CSEP personnel and scientists will help establish the associated technical requirements for prototype EFP experiments, identify priorities and required resources, and determine the next steps for CSEP EFP activities. In addition, this meeting will leverage workshop participation by global CSEP scientists to recommend CSEP priorities on prospective and retrospective short-term forecasting experiments.

The purposes are: (a) assess CSEP requirements and priorities for EFP prototype experiments; (b) develop EFP prototype implementation plan; (c) assess designs for new short-term and retrospective experiments; (d) recommend priorities for CSEP activities.

This meeting will bring together CSEP personnel (scientists and developers), scientists committed to implementing EFP and OEF testing procedures, and agency representatives. The expected outcomes include:

1. A document defining recommended prototype EFP experiments (submission formats, acceptance tests, model classes, reference models, evaluation procedures, metadata)
2. A list of tasks to implement the prototype EFP experiments.
3. Recommendations for the design of new short-term experiments.
4. Recommendations for retrospective experiments.
5. Recommended list of priorities for EFP-related and other CSEP activities judged by scientific merit, technical challenges and available resources.

Presentation slides may be downloaded by clicking the links following the title. PLEASE NOTE: Files are the author’s property. They may contain unpublished or preliminary information and should only be used while viewing the talk.

WEDNESDAY, MAY 8, 2013