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2013 SCEC Earthquake Simulators Workshop

Conveners: Terry Tullis
Dates: September 8, 2013 (13:00-17:00)
Location: Hilton Palm Springs Resort, Palm Springs, CA
SCEC Award and Report: 13101

SUMMARY: This workshop was intended both for those who are participating in the SCEC Collaborative Project on Comparison, Verification, and Validation of Earthquake Simulators and for those with general interest in the topic. We looked at the status of our comparisons on two problems that we are presently working on and considered the future of a coordinated effort on earthquake simulators. The two problems under investigation are (1) jumping of ruptures from one fault to another, and (2) many-fault simulated earthquake histories based on the UCERF3 deformation model(s). For the first of these problems we are both determining how far ruptures can jump from one fault to another using the simulators as as they currently exist (which seems to be less than observed ruptures) and what modifications represent the best approach to make them jump more realistic distances. Comparisons are being made with results for the same problem that is being investigated by the dynamic rupture modeling Technical Activity Group (TAG). For simulations using UCERF3 models, issues include settling on the best approach to assigning stress-drop values for all of the fault sections and how many of the UCERF3 deformation models should be used as input. Looking forward, it is clear that studying the behavior of earthquake simulators can provide valuable insights into the behavior of actual earthquake interactions and sequences and the character of earthquake catalogs. What needs to be determined is the best way to study this within SCEC, and in particular, whether a collaborative project and TAG as has existed for the past several years is the best approach.

Presentation slides may be downloaded by clicking the title. PLEASE NOTE: Slides are the author’s property. They may contain unpublished or preliminary information and should only be used while viewing the talk.

SEPTEMBER 8, 2013

13:00 Welcome and Intro: Purpose of Sixth Workshop  
13:10 Discussion Topic 1: Jumping of ruptures from one fault to another
  1. How far ruptures can jump from one fault to another using the simulators as they currently exist (which seems to be less than observed ruptures)? What are observed distances?
  2. What modifications represent the best approach to make them jump more realistic distances?
  3. What additional statistical comparison tools do we need for this problem?

Comments from Keith Richards-Dinger, John Rundle, and Steve Ward

 
14:00 Discussion Topic 2: Many-fault simulated earthquake histories based on the UCERF3 deformation models
  1. Settling on the best approach to assigning stress-drop values for all of the fault sections
  2. How many of the UCERF3 deformation models should be used as input?
  3. Explore the effect on the statistics of including a solution for encouraging fault-to-fault jumps in the UCERF3 simulations

Comments from Ned Field

 
14:45 Break  
15:15 Discussion Topic 3: Looking forward, studying the behavior of earthquake simulators can provide valuable insights into the behavior of actual earthquake interactions and sequences and the character of earthquake catalogs
  1. What is the best way to study this within SCEC?
  2. In particular, is a collaborative project and TAG as has existed for the past several years the best approach?
  3. If a TAG is the best approach, who will lead it?

Comments from Dave Jackson

 
17:00 Adjourn  

PARTICIPANTS:

Kioumars Afshari (UCLA)
Ana Aguiar (Stanford)
Pablo Ampuero (Caltech)
John Anderson (UNR)
Jason Ballmann (SCEC)
Michael Barall (Invisible Software)
Magali Barba (Cal Poly Pomona)
Andy Barbour (UCSD)
Mary Barr (UC Davis)
Noel Bartlow (Stanford)
Yehuda Ben-Zion (USC)
Greg Beroza (Stanford)
Jacobo Bielak (CMU)
Daniel Bowden (Caltech)
Tom Brocher (USGS)
Lucile Bruhat (Stanford)
Amber Butcher (USC)
Alexander Bykovtsev (RANS)
Ana Cadena (CWU)
Sandy Calonge (Heritage iS)
Ken Campbell (EQECAT, Inc.)
Jose Cardona (CSUN)
Barry Chew (CSUSB)
Elizabeth Cochran (USGS)
Doug Cook (Caltrans)
Yifeng Cui (SDSC)
Luis Dalguer (ETHZ)
Andrew Delorey (LANL)
Dan Determan (USGS)
Carmina Diaz (CSUSB)
Joe Dierkhising (UNR)
Jim Dieterich (UCR)
Luyuan Ding (UCSB)
Jessica Donovan (USC)
Ben Duan (TAMU)
Sean Dunbar (CA DWR)
Zacharie Duputel (Caltech)
Ken Duru (Stanford)
Donna Eberhart-Phillips (UC Davis)
Bill Ellsworth (USGS)
Brittany Erickson (SDSU)
Wenyuan Fan (SIO/UCSD)
Ned Field (USGS)
Yuning Fu (JPL/Caltech)
Alice Gabriel (LMU Munich)
Dylan Garcia (CSUF)
David Gill (SCEC)
Michal Giveon (Paradigm Geophysical )
Kim Gloersen (Clemson)
David Goldsby (Brown)
Luis Gomez (Chaffey College)
Paul Gonzales (Heritage iS)
Javier Gonzàlez-Garcìa (CICESE)
Alejandro Gonzalez-Ortega (CICESE)
Margaret Gooding (LSA Assoc, Inc.)
Jessica Grenader (USC)
Guzavina (U of Muenster)
Erik Haaker (SDSU)
David Haddad (ASU)
Lijam Hagos (CGS/SMIP)
Ruth Harris (USGS)
Rachel Hatch (Cal Poly Pomona)
Egill Hauksson (Caltech)
Jessica Hawthorne (Caltech)
Tom Heaton (Caltech)
Pamela Henry (Fault Line)
Evan Hirakawa (SDSU)
Don Hoirup (CA DWR)
Yihe Huang (Caltech)
Brittany Huerta (CSUN)
Tran Huynh (SCEC / USC)
Marius Isken (USGS)
Dave Jackson (UCLA)
Chen Ji (UCSB)
Junle Jiang (Caltech)
Tom Jordan (USC)
Taka Kanaya (Brown)
Haydar Karaoglu (CMU)
Dan Keck (Etiwanda HS)
Annie Kell (UNR)
Emily Kleber (ASU)
Kayla Kroll (UCR)
Olga Joan Ktenidou (ISTerre, Grenoble)
Hisahiko Kubo (DPRI Kyoto U)
Annie Lamontagne (UCSB)
En-Jui Lee (Wyoming)
Bernadette Leeper (WCSD)
Sebastien Leprince (Caltech)
Zefeng Li (Georgia Tech)
Charles Lieou (UCSB)
Eric Lindsey (SIO/UCSD)
Xin Liu (USC)
Kate Long (Cal EMA)
Semechah Lui (Caltech)
Yingdi Luo (Caltech)
Shuo Ma (SDSU)
Martin Mai (KAUST)
Daniel Markowski (Utah State)
Glen Mattioli (UNAVCO)
Eric Matzel (LLNL)
Alexa McBean (UNR)
Sally McGill (CSUSB)
Men-Andrin Meier (ETHZ)
Diego Melgar (UCSD/SIO)
Lingsen Meng (UC Berkeley)
Chris Milliner (USC)
Kevin Milner (SCEC)
Sarah Minson (USGS)
Bernard Minster (UCSD)
Alex Morelan (UC Davis)
Stephanie Nale (UCSC)
David Nget (Cal Poly Pomona)
Ed Nissen (CSM)
Marlene Noriega (CSUSB)
J. Quinn Norris (UC Davis)
Margo Odlum (UCLA)
G. Harris Ohland (Cal Poly Pomona)
Keishi Okazaki (Brown)
Jaime Parada (U Central de Venezuela)
Jay Parker (JPL)
Michael Pasyanos (LLNL)
Celia Pazos (Cal Poly Pomona)
Christian Pelties (LMU Munich)
Stephen Perry (Caltech)
John Platt (Harvard)
Rupa Purasinghe (CSULA)
Ruwanka Purasinghe (City of L.A.)
Ani Pytlewski (Lyndon State)
Hannah Rabinowitz (Columbia)
Leo Ramirez-Guzman (UNAM)
Kyle Remmenga
David Rhoades (GNS Science)
Jim Rice (Harvard)
Keith Richards-Dinger (UCR)
Bryan Riel (Caltech)
Brian Rockwell (SDSU)
Otilio Rojas (U Central de Venezuela)
Nick Rousseau (SCEC)
John Rundle (UCD)
Valerie Sahakian (SIO)
William Savran (UCSD/SDSU)
Pieter Share (USC)
Zheng-Kang Shen (NSF)
Zheqiang Shi (SDSU)
Manoochehr Shirzaei (ASU)
Seok Goo Song (ETHZ)
Xin Song (USC)
Anne Strader (UCLA)
Danielle Sumy (USGS)
Carl Tape (Alaska)
Ben Thompson (Harvard)
Xiaopeng Tong (SIO/UCSD)
Terry Tullis (Brown)
Ekaterina Tymofyeyeva (SIO)
Mike Vadman (CSUN)
Vanessa Vega (CSUSB)
Manuela Villani (ARUP London)
Miguel Villasana (PCC)
Melanie Walling (Lettis Consultants Intl)
Steve Ward (UCSC)
Shengji Wei (Caltech)
Debbie Weiser (UCLA)
Charles Williams (GNS Science)
Kyle Withers (SDSU)
Lian Xue (UCSC)
Qian Yao (UCSD/SDSU)
Mark Yoder (UC Davis)
Clara Yoon (Stanford)
Han Yue (UCSC)
Jianchang Zheng (USC)
Olaf Zielke (KAUST)
Jessica Zimmerman (TAMU)

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