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SCEC Collaboratory for Interseismic Simulation and Modeling (CISM)

Conveners: Tom Jordan (USC), Phil Maechling (USC)
Dates: September 13, 2015 (08:00 – 12:00)
Location: Hilton Palm Springs Resort, Palm Springs, CA
Attendees: If interested in attending, please contact the conveners.

OVERVIEW: SCEC has received a three-year grant from the W. M. Keck Foundation to construct a Collaboratory for Interseismic Simulation and Modeling (CISM) that will provide a unique environment for developing large-scale numerical models that can simulate sequences of fault ruptures and the seismic shaking they produce. The goal of CISM is to equip earthquake scientists with HPC-enabled cyberinfrastructure that creates a new generation of comprehensive, physics-based earthquake forecasts using the California fault system as their primary test bed.

CISM will provide a computational framework for combining earthquake simulations, which account for the physics of earthquake nucleation and stress transfer, with ground-motion prediction models derived from simulations of seismic wave excitation and propagation. CISM will be engineered as a workflow-oriented cyberinfrastructure with common tools for integrating various types of scientific software modules provided by different research teams into well-structured forecasting models that can be calibrated against existing data and tested against observations within the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). Validated CISM forecasting models will be contributed to the USGS’s program of operational earthquake forecasting.

CISM will feature a petascale shared file system with high-bandwidth gateways connected to NSF and DOE high-performance computing resources, which will support the massive calculations required for CISM simulations and modeling. The software development process will focus on quickly establishing end-to-end processing capabilities and initiating an iterative cycle of software development that will expand and elaborate the CISM system.

The newly formed W. M. Keck Foundation Fellowships in Earthquake Forecasting Research will support participation in CISM by junior researchers.

The objectives of this kick-off workshop are to:

  1. Establish three-year scientific goals for the CISM program
  2. Identify available earthquake modeling software needed to achieve these objectives
  3. Select first-year software development targets, including data-exchange and workflow capabilities
  4. Encourage SCEC scientists to enroll in CISM development teams
  5. Initiate the recruitment of early-career scientists as WMKF Fellows in Earthquake Forecasting Research

PARTICIPANTS: Greg Beroza (Stanford), Mike Blanpied (USGS), Annemarie Christophersen (GNS New Zealand), Harmony Colella (ASU), Yifeng Cui (SDSC), Jim Dieterich (UC Riverside), Bill Ellsworth (USGS), Ned Field (USGS), Jacqui Gilchrist (UCR), Christine Goulet (SCEC), Egill Hauksson (Caltech), Tran Huynh (SCEC), Tom Jordan (SCEC), Yan Kagan (UCLA), Masha Liukis (SCEC), Philip Maechling (SCEC), Warner Marzocchi (INGV), Kevin Milner (SCEC), Yosi Ogata (ISM), David Rhoades (GNS New Zealand), John Rundle (UC Davis), Daniel Schorlemmer (GFZ Potsdam), Bruce Shaw (Columbia), Maximillian Werner (U Bristol), John Yu (USC)

SEPTEMBER 13, 2015

Presentation slides may be downloaded by clicking the title of the presentation.
PLEASE NOTE: Files are the author’s property. They may contain unpublished or preliminary information and should only be used while viewing the talk.

08:00 - 08:10 Introduction and Overview of CISM T. Jordan
08:10 - 08:50 State of Forecast Development and Considerations for CISM Moderator: T. Jordan
08:50 - 10:10 Earthquake Simulators Moderator: T. Tullis
10:10 - 10:40 Ground Motion Forecasting Moderator: G. Beroza
10:40 - 11:00 SCEC Collaboratory for Interseismic Simulation and Modeling (CISM) Infrastructure (PDF, 1.0MB) Moderator: P. Maechling
11:00 - 12:00 Objectives and Plans for CISM Moderator: T. Jordan
12:00 Adjourn  

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