SCEC Workshop on Probabilistic Fault Displacement: Critical Issues, Data Needs, and Interface Plans
Conveners: Christine Goulet, Alexandra Sarmiento, Timothy Dawson, Yousef Bozorgnia
Dates: October 1, 2019
Location: Kellogg West Conference Center
SCEC Award and Workshop Report: 19201
SUMMARY: This workshop focuses on interface issues related to the development of new state-of-the-art probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis (PFDHA) models. The goal of this workshop is to engage a broad community of participants who can contribute and benefit from the work and facilitate interactions across disciplines. We will cover the needs from industry, the features of the empirical database being developed, the plans for supplementing the dataset with fault rupture simulations, and the overall plans for model building.
Presentation slides may be downloaded by clicking the links following the title. PLEASE NOTE: Files are the author’s property. They may contain unpublished or preliminary information and should only be used while viewing the talk.
TUESDAY, OCTOBER 1, 2019
| 09:00 - 09:30 | Workshop Check-In | |
| Session 1: Overview, Motivation, and Desired Outcomes Yousef Bozorgnia, Moderator and Greg Lavrentiadis/Alexandra Sarmiento, Reporters |
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| 09:30 - 09:45 | Welcome and Overview of Workshop Objectives (PDF, 292KB) | Yousef Bozorgnia / Christine Goulet |
| 09:45 - 10:15 | Industry and Regulator Needs for Fault Displacement Hazard Assessments (PDF, 3.7MB) | Chris Madugo |
| Session 2: Current Datasets and Models Yousef Bozorgnia, Moderator and Timothy Dawson, Reporter |
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| 10:15 - 10:45 | Overview of in-prep Next-Generation Fault Displacements Database (PDF, 1.8MB) | Alexandra Sarmiento |
| 10:45 - 11:05 | Current PFDHA Models | Bob Youngs |
| 11:05 - 11:15 | Break | |
| Session 3: New Models and Data Needs Norm Abrahamson, Moderator and Alexandra Sarmiento, Reporter |
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| 11:15 | Lightning Talk, PFDHA Modeling Group: Kuehn et al. (PDF, 618KB) | Nico Kuehn |
| 11:20 | Lightning Talk, PFDHA Modeling Group: Abrahamson et al. (PDF, 715KB) | Greg Lavrentiadis |
| 11:25 | Lightning Talk, PFDHA Modeling Group: Chen et al. (PDF, 570KB), (PDF, 3.5MB) | Rui Chen / Chris Milliner |
| 11:30 | Lightning Talk, PFDHA Modeling Group: Nurminen et al. (PDF, 550KB) | Fiia Nurminen |
| 11:35 - 12:20 | Discussion on modeling and data needs | All |
| 12:20 - 13:20 | Lunch | |
| Session 4: Simulations Christine Goulet, Moderator and Greg Lavrentiadis/Alexandra Sarmiento, Reporters |
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| 13:20 - 13:40 | Overview of Kinematic and Dynamic Rupture Simulations | Rob Graves |
| 13:40 - 14:00 | Introduction to Dynamic Rupture Simulations | Kyle Withers |
| 14:00 - 14:20 | Current Prospects for Validation and Forward Simulations for Fault Displacement (PDF, 2.4MB) | Yongfei Wang, with All |
| 14:20 - 14:50 | Gaps in Database and Scenario Needs (PDF, 500KB) | Alexandra Sarmiento, with All |
| 14:50 - 15:05 | Break | |
| 15:05 - 17:00 | Session 5: New Ideas and Next Steps Yousef Bozorgnia, Moderator and Greg Lavrentiadis/Alexandra Sarmiento, Reporters |
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| 15:05 - 15:45 | Lightning Talks (slideshow pre-submittal required): New Ideas and Perspectives | |
| Off Strike Displacement of Reverse Faulting (PDF, 631KB) | Robb Moss | |
| SURE Database (PDF, 754KB) | Stéphane Baize | |
| Measuring Displacement with Optical Image Correlation | Rob Zinke | |
| Empirical Data, Rupture at Fault Steps | Glenn Biasi | |
| Modeling repeated coseismic slip to identify and characterize individual earthquakes from geomorphic offsets on strike-slip faults (PDF, 716KB) | Ray Weldon | |
| Off-fault Deformation and Shallow Slip Deficit from Dynamic Rupture Simulations with Fault Zone Plasticity (PDF, 5.9MB) | Kim Olsen | |
| New Tools to Measure Old Earthquakes | Austin Elliott | |
| Rupture Measurement Error (PDF, 1.7MB) | Mike Oskin | |
| 15:45 - 16:15 | Discussion | All |
| 16:15 - 16:50 | Workshop Recommendations and Future Plans | Christine Goulet |
| 16:50 - 17:00 | Closing Comments | Yousef Bozorgnia |
| 17:00 | Workshop Adjourns |
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PARTICIPANTS
Domniki Asimaki (Caltech)
*Jeff Bayless (AECOM)
Stéphane Baize (IRSN)
Glenn Biasi (USGS)
*Richard Boyd (CGS)
Yousef Bozorgnia (UCLA)
Kuan-Yu Chen (NCREE)
Rui Chen (CGS)
Brian Chiou (CalTrans)
Luis Dalguer (Consultant)
Tim Dawson (CGS)
*Jennifer Donahue (Consultant)
Austin Elliott (USGS)
Christine Goulet (SCEC/USC)
Rob Graves (USGS)
*Kathryn Hanson (Consultant)
*Ruth Harris (USGS)
Tran Huynh (SCEC/USC)
Mehrshad Ketabdar (SoCal Gas)
Albert Kottke (PG&E)
Nico Kuehn (UCLA)
Chun-Hsiang Kuo (NCREE)
Ying-Ping Kuo (NCREE)
Greg Lavrentiadis (UC Berkeley)
Julian Lozos (CSUN)
Chris Madugo (PG&E)
Danielle Madugo (UCLA)
Silvia Mazzoni (UCLA)
Chris Milliner (JPL, Caltech)
Robb Moss (Cal Poly)
Josie Nevitt (USGS)
Fiia Nurminen (UNICH)
Kim Olsen (SDSU)
Mike Oskin (UC Davis)
*Bruno Pace (U "G. d'Annunzio")
Edric Pauk (SCEC/USC)
Mark Petersen (USGS)
Alex Sarmiento (UCLA)
Kate Scharer (USGS)
Tom Shantz (CalTrans)
*Andi Shen (UCLA)
*Hong Kie Thio (AECOM)
Steve Thompson (Consultant)
Yongfei Wang (SCEC)
Ray Weldon (U Oregon)
Kyle Withers (USGS)
Chiun-lin Wu (NCREE)
*Yahui Yang (CEC)
Bob Youngs (Wood E&IS)
Rob Zinke (NASA JPL)
*Remote Participants
