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Assessing UCERF3 and Planning for an Eventual UCERF4

SUMMARY: More than two years has elapsed since the time-independent and time-dependent UCERF3 models were completed (http://www.wgcep.org/ucerf3), so the time seems right with respect to identifying potential inadequacies in this latest model and possible improvements for any future versions (eg., UCERF4). We therefore plan to host two workshops, open to the broad community, to discuss possible scientific and practical improvements. To maximize participation and minimize travel, one workshop will be held in the San Francisco area (at the USGS, Menlo Park facility on June 19, 2019) and another in the Los Angeles area (at the Kellogg West Conference Center in Pomona on July 16, 2019).  The first half of each day will include overviews and guided discussions from UCERF3 participants (which will be similar between the two days) and the second half will be reserved for lightning-style talks from anyone else that wishes to weigh in (which will presumably differ between the two days).  We will assume that all attendees are familiar with the UCERF3 models so we can get right to the possible improvements; a preliminary discussion of the latter is available at https://doi.org/10.1785/0220180151, which we advise participants to read ahead of time (copies can be requested from Ned Field: field@usgs.gov).

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CANCELED -- TUESDAY, JULY 16, 2019 (Southern California Workshop)

Conveners: Ned Field and the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities
Date: July 16, 2019
Location: Auditorium, Kellogg West Conference Center, Pomona, CA

09:30 - 10:00 Introduction and Overview Ned Field
10:00 - 10:30 Geologic Perspectives Tim Dawson / Ray Weldon
10:30 - 10:45 Potential Improvements to Deformation Modeling Tom Parsons
10:45 - 11:00 Scaling Relationships Bruce Shaw
11:00 - 11:10 Break  
11:10 - 11:25 Fault Rupture Characteristics Glenn Biasi
11:25 - 11:40 Grand-Inversion Considerations Morgan Page
11:40 - 12:00 Implementation Issues Peter Powers
12:00 - 13:00 Lunch  
13:00 - 17:00 Lighting Talks & Comments  

 

WEDNESDAY, JUNE 19, 2019 (Northern California Workshop)

Conveners: Ned Field and the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities
Date: June 19, 2019
Location: Rambo Auditorium, USGS Earthquake Science Center, Menlo Park, CA

Presentation slides may be downloaded by clicking the links following the title. PLEASE NOTE: Files are the author’s property. They may contain unpublished or preliminary information and should only be used while viewing the talk. The embedded video to the right contains a recording of the entirety of the June 19th workshop in Menlo Park. It is intended to be used for research purposes only.

08:00 - 08:45 Introduction and Overview (PDF, 8.2MB) Ned Field
08:45 - 09:30 Geologic Perspectives Tim Dawson / Ray Weldon
09:30 - 10:00 Potential Improvements to Deformation Modeling (PDF, 3.5MB) Tom Parsons
10:00 - 10:15 Break  
10:15 - 10:30 Scaling Relationships (PDF, 770KB) Bruce Shaw
10:30 - 11:00 Fault Rupture Characteristics Glenn Biasi
11:00 - 11:40 Grand-Inversion Considerations (PDF, 2.8MB) Morgan Page
11:40 - 12:00 Discussion  
12:00 - 13:00 Lunch  
13:00 - 17:00 Lighting Talks & Comments  

PARTICIPANTS

*Remote Participants