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2022 SCEC CSEP Workshop

Conveners: Max Werner, Toño Bayona, and Bill Savran
Dates: September 10, 2022 09:00 - 17:00
Location: Palm Springs Hilton
SCEC Award and Report: 22159

SUMMARY: The goals of the workshop are to re/build a global community of earthquake forecast model developers and testers, share advances in earthquake forecasting and model evaluation, review recent CSEP activities, tools and concepts (e.g., the new pyCSEP Python package now published in JOSS and SRL), build a community around machine-learning based earthquake forecasting and model evaluation (e.g., to develop community benchmark datasets and models), share Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF) efforts in the US and around the world, and identify opportunities for model testing.

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 10, 2022

09:00 - 09:15 Workshop Check-In  
09:15 - 09:30 Welcome and Overview of Workshop Objectives, Introductions Max Werner
  Session 1: Overview of Recent and Ongoing CSEP activities
Moderator: Bill Savran
09:30 - 10:00 Primer on CSEP and Current Capabilities Bill Savran and Max Werner
10:00 - 10:20 Are Regionally Calibrated Seismicity Models more Informative than Global Models? Insights from California, New Zealand, and Italy Toño Bayona (remote)
10:20 - 10:40 Earthquake Forecast Testing Experiments in Italy: Results, Lessons and Prospects Pablo Iturrieta
10:40 - 11:00
Discussion
  • Community feedback on CSEP activities and plans
  • Priorities for the “USGS bridge” period and a possible SCEC6
All
11:00 - 11:30 Break  
  Session 2: Earthquake Forecasting with Machine Learning  
11:30 - 11:50 Neural network-based Temporal Earthquake Forecasts Kelian Dascher-Cousineau
11:50 - 12:10 Neural Point Processes and the 2016 Central Apennines Sequence Sam Stockman
12:10 - 13:00
Discussion: 
  • Community benchmark problems, datasets and forecasts
  • A new ML-oriented community competition with CSEP benchmarks? 
All
13:00 - 14:00 Lunch  
  Session 3: Operational Earthquake Forecasting around the Globe Moderator: Philip Maechling
14:00 - 14:20 Prospective testing of the USGS public aftershock forecasts following the M6.4 2020 SW Puerto Rico Earthquake Nicholas van der Elst
14:20 - 14:40 An Interactive Viewer to Improve Operational Aftershock Forecasts Gabrielle Paris
14:40 - 15:00 Current State of New Zealand’s Operational Earthquake Forecasting Kenny Graham
15:00 - 15:30
Discussion: 
  • How can CSEP best support OEF efforts in the US and globally?
  • Identifying OEF models ready for model evaluation 
All
15:30 - 16:00 Break  
16:00 - 17:00
Session 4: Developing Future Plans
  • Next steps for pyCSEP: development and training needs
  • Community tools for ML-based forecast development and testing: benchmark datasets and problems; new experiments 
  • Testing OEF models (e.g. UCERF)
  • Priorities and next steps for the SCEC bridge period and a possible SCEC6 
Moderator: Max Werner
 

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PARTICIPANTS

*Remote Participants