Group B, Poster #160, Earthquake Forecasting and Predictability (EFP)
Developing, testing and communicating earthquake forecasts: an expert elicitation for good practice recommendations
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Poster Presentation
2023 SCEC Annual Meeting, Poster #160, SCEC Contribution #13156 VIEW PDF
conducted an elicitation of expert views, aiming to provide good practice recommendations for the development, testing and communication of earthquake forecasts. We applied the Delphi method – with two surveys and one workshop – to identify consensus and dissent on these issues among a group of 20 international earthquake forecasting experts.
We found agreement among the expert group that earthquake forecast communication products should be developed together with the intended users. However, there was disagreement on whether the forecasting models themselves and how they are tested should be user-dependent. No recommendations of strict model requirements could be elicited, but benchmark comparisons, prospective testing, reproducibility, and transparency are encouraged.
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We found agreement among the expert group that earthquake forecast communication products should be developed together with the intended users. However, there was disagreement on whether the forecasting models themselves and how they are tested should be user-dependent. No recommendations of strict model requirements could be elicited, but benchmark comparisons, prospective testing, reproducibility, and transparency are encouraged.
SHOW MORE