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Probabilistic Forecasting of Seismicity

Yan Y. Kagan, Yufang Rong, & David D. Jackson

Published 2003, SCEC Contribution #731

Predicting individual earthquakes is not possible now, but long-term probabilistic forecasts can be validated and provide useful information for managing earthquake risk. Short-term probability estimates are important for emergency and scientific response, but they are considerably more difficult to construct and test than long-term forecasts. Here we present three different forecast models, along with some quantitative tests of their effectiveness. The three models are for long-term and short-term forecasts based on seismicity, and for long-term forecasts based on geodetically observed strain rate.

Kagan, Y. Y., Rong, Y., & Jackson, D. D. (2003). Probabilistic Forecasting of Seismicity. In Kagan, Y. Y., & Rong, Y. (Eds.), Earthquake Science and Seismic Risk Reduction, (Chapter 5.2, pp. 185-200) Dordrecht, : Kluwer