Summary

The 2008 ShakeOut Scenario transformed how scientists, engineers, emergency managers, utilities, and public officials understood the consequences of a major southern San Andreas Fault earthquake. Developed through an unprecedented collaboration among hundreds of contributors, the scenario provided the scientific foundation for new preparedness initiatives, infrastructure investments, seismic retrofit programs, and the annual Great ShakeOut earthquake drill. Over the past two decades, it has helped shape earthquake preparedness, mitigation, and resilience efforts throughout California while inspiring similar preparedness activities around the world.

Twenty years later, both earthquake science and Southern California itself have changed substantially. Advances in earthquake source characterization, dynamic rupture modeling, ground-motion simulation, SCEC Community Earth Models, and earthquake early warning have significantly improved our understanding of earthquake rupture and ground motions. At the same time, Southern California’s population, infrastructure, communication systems, and built environment have evolved, becoming increasingly interconnected and digitized. While significant investments in seismic mitigation have reduced some vulnerabilities, many buildings, infrastructure systems, and communities remain exposed to earthquake losses. Recent events—including the 2023 Türkiye earthquakes, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the 2025 Los Angeles wildfires—have highlighted new challenges associated with cascading hazards, community resilience, and disaster recovery. Meanwhile, advances in computational capabilities, data availability, and AI-enabled modeling now allow complex interactions to be analyzed with a level of detail that was not feasible in 2008. These scientific and societal changes provide a timely opportunity to reassess the impacts of a major southern San Andreas earthquake using current scientific understanding and present-day conditions.

ShakeOut Scenario 2.0 is a collaborative effort to generate updated earthquake scenarios that build upon the influential 2008 ShakeOut Scenario using current scientific understanding and engineering capabilities to evaluate earthquake impacts under today’s built environment, infrastructure systems, and societal conditions. The effort is co-led by the Dr. Lucy Jones Center for Disaster Resilience, the Statewide California Earthquake Center (SCEC), and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in partnership with the California Geological Survey (CGS), California Seismic Safety Commission (CSSC), University of California Disaster Resilience Network, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and many additional collaborators. Together, these organizations are integrating advances in earthquake science, engineering, and the social sciences to develop updated earthquake scenarios that will support future mitigation, preparedness, and resilience planning across California. Ultimately, the scientific products developed through ShakeOut Scenario 2.0 are intended to support physical and social scientists, engineers, local governments, emergency managers, infrastructure agencies, and other practitioners working to improve earthquake preparedness and resilience.

This workshop marks the culmination of the intensive summer 2026 research activities and brings together the broader ShakeOut Scenario 2.0 community to review progress and coordinate the work ahead. Presentations will summarize advances in earthquake source characterization, rupture modeling, ground-motion simulations, secondary hazards, engineering investigations, and societal impact studies, while discussions will focus on integrating these efforts to support subsequent engineering analyses, stakeholder engagement, and future project activities. The workshop provides an opportunity for researchers, engineers, practitioners, and stakeholders to exchange ideas across disciplines, strengthen collaboration, and help guide the continued development of ShakeOut Scenario 2.0. The scientific products and partnerships advanced through this workshop will provide the foundation for subsequent engineering and socioeconomic assessments that will evaluate earthquake impacts, quantify the benefits of mitigation efforts over the past two decades, identify remaining vulnerabilities in buildings and infrastructure and opportunities for further risk reduction, and support future preparedness, risk communication, and resilience planning across California.

Workshop Goals

The workshop is designed to strengthen coordination across the scientific, engineering, and stakeholder communities contributing to ShakeOut Scenario 2.0. Specific objectives include:

1. Review progress toward the updated earthquake scenario. Present recent advances in earthquake source characterization, rupture modeling, ground-motion simulations, secondary hazards, engineering investigations, and societal impact studies developed during the first phase of the project.
2. Evaluate the scientific foundation for the updated scenarios. Review candidate earthquake source models, rupture simulations, and ground-motion products; discuss approaches for validation; and help guide selection of the scientific products that will support subsequent engineering, infrastructure, and societal impact analyses.
3. Identify opportunities for further risk reduction. Examine how updated scenario analyses can help assess the benefits of mitigation efforts over the past two decades, identify remaining vulnerabilities in buildings and infrastructure, and inform priorities for reducing future earthquake losses.
4. Integrate activities across disciplines. Bring together earth scientists, engineers, social scientists, emergency managers, infrastructure specialists, and other stakeholders to strengthen communication across disciplines and ensure that the scientific products developed during Year 1 effectively support subsequent engineering, socioeconomic, and stakeholder analyses.
5. Strengthen the ShakeOut Scenario 2.0 partnership. Provide opportunities for the scientific, engineering, and stakeholder communities to exchange ideas, identify opportunities for collaboration, and build shared priorities for the continued development of ShakeOut Scenario 2.0.
6. Plan the next phase of the effort. Identify priorities, deliverables, and coordination activities that will guide continued development of ShakeOut Scenario 2.0 through engineering analyses, socioeconomic assessments, stakeholder engagement, and preparation of the integrated earthquake scenarios.

Participation

The workshop will bring together researchers, engineers, practitioners, emergency-management professionals, infrastructure specialists, and other stakeholders contributing to ShakeOut Scenario 2.0. Participation will include members of the ShakeOut Technical Activity Group, collaborators from partner organizations, and representatives from government agencies, utilities, engineering organizations, and other stakeholder communities whose expertise can help guide development of the updated scenarios and their applications.

Participation is expected to be limited to approximately 75 in-person participants, selected based on a short statement of interest and potential contribution to the workshop objectives. The selection process will seek appropriate representation across the scientific, engineering, stakeholder, and partner communities supporting the broader effort. Accepted participants will be notified by September 3, 2026.

Poster presentations are welcomed from participants and may highlight ongoing research, preliminary results, emerging methodologies, datasets, or applications related to ShakeOut Scenario 2.0. Dedicated poster viewing during breaks and lunch will provide opportunities for discussion and interdisciplinary exchange.

There is no registration fee, and meals listed on the workshop agenda will be provided. Accepted participants are expected to attend the full workshop and contribute to the community discussions and collaborative planning activities that will help establish priorities and plans for the next phase of ShakeOut Scenario 2.0.

Travel Information

The workshop will be held on the University Park Campus of the University of Southern California. Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) and Hollywood Burbank Airport (BUR) provide convenient air access to the Los Angeles area. Participants are responsible for arranging their own transportation to and from the workshop. Rideshare, taxi, rental car, and public transportation options are available throughout the region.

A limited block of lodging rooms is being held at the USC Hotel, 3540 S. Figueroa Street, Los Angeles, CA 90007, adjacent to the University of Southern California’s University Park Campus. Additional hotels near USC and downtown Los Angeles are also convenient for campus. For participants driving to the workshop, self-parking is available at the USC Hotel. Additional lodging and parking information will be provided to accepted participants as available.