New Frontiers in Earthquake Forecasting
Date: September 8, 2024 (08:00am – 12:00 pm)
Location: Hilton Palm Springs, California
Workshop Organizers: Max Werner (University of Bristol), Toño Bayona (University of Bristol), Phil Maechling (USC)
SCEC Award: 24199
This workshop will explore new challenges and opportunities in earthquake forecasting for the entire San Andreas Fault System. We will assess conceptual and data frontiers, including the potential of machine learning. A community benchmark of existing CSEP forecasts will be presented to foster collaboration and advance earthquake forecasting beyond the ETAS paradigm.
| Time | Agenda Item | Speaker |
|---|---|---|
| 7:30 - 8:30 | Workshop Check-In | |
| 8:00 - 10:30 | Session 1: State of CSEP and OEF | |
| 8:00 | Welcome and Overview of Workshop Objectives | Max Werner |
| 8:15 | How Reliable Are Tomorrow’s Earthquake Probabilities? An Evaluation of Clustered Seismicity Models in California | Toño Bayona (virtual) |
| 8:30 | The CSEP Next-Day California Benchmark: Tutorial & Preliminary Comparison with UCERF3-ETAS | Francesco Serafini |
| 8:45 | The CSEP-China Experiment at the China Seismic Exploration Site (CSES) | Shengfeng Zhang (virtual)/ Angie Zhang |
| 9:00 | New Capabilities of the pyCSEP Toolkit for Earthquake Forecast Developers | Kenny Graham |
| 9:15 | Magnitude-Weighted Likelihood Scoring of Earthquake Forecasts | Rick Schoenberg |
| 9:30 | Comparative Evaluation of Earthquake Forecasts: Application to Italy | Jonas Brehmer (virtual) |
| 9:45 | Discussion | All |
| 10:00 - 10:15 | Break | |
| 10:15 - 12:00 | Session 2: New Frontiers | |
| 10:15 | EarthquakeNPP: A Benchmarking Platform for Neural Point Processes | Sam Stockman |
| 10:30 | Perspectives on USGS Operational Earthquake Forecasting | Ned Field |
| 10:45 | Earthquake Forecasting and Low-Frequency Earthquakes | Gaspard Forge |
| 11:00 | Sustainable Computing for Earthquake Forecast Testing Centers | Phil Maechling |
| 11:15 | Demonstration of a User-Centered Interactive Viewer for Aftershock Forecast Maps | Bianca Artigas |
| 11:30 | Discussion | All |
| 12:00 | Workshop Adjourns |
The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) supports an international effort to conduct and rigorously evaluate earthquake forecasting experiments. This unique facility accelerates progress in prediction research by functioning as a new type of environment for earthquake prediction experiments: a virtual, distributed laboratory (collaboratory) with a cyber-infrastructure adequate to support a global program of research on earthquake predictability. CSEP testing centers are now operational in California, New Zealand, Japan, China, and Europe with 442 models under current evaluation. The California testing center, operated by SCEC, is testing 30-minute, 1-day, 3-month, 1-year, and 5-year forecasts for California, the Western Pacific, and global regions. This earthquake system science approach seeks to provide answers to the questions (1) How should scientific forecasting experiments be conducted and evaluated? and (2) What is the intrinsic predictability of the earthquake rupture process?
2022 CSEP Workshop
2018 CSEP/CISM Workshop
2018 Powell Center Meeting
2017 CSEP Workshop
2017 Powell Center Meeting
2017 CSEP Workshop
The Statewide California Earthquake Center (SCEC) fosters a diverse and inclusive community where everyone feels safe, productive, and welcome. We expect all participants in SCEC-supported events to uphold this commitment by adhering to the SCEC Activities Code of Conduct.
The SCEC Annual Meeting brings together 400-500 participants worldwide to share breakthroughs, assess progress, and chart a collaborative path for earthquake science. All of the Center activities are presented, analyzed, and woven into a set of priorities for SCEC to pursue in the future.
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