SCEC Award Number 07168 View PDF
Proposal Category Collaborative Proposal (Integration and Theory)
Proposal Title Short-term earthquake forecasting in California
Investigator(s)
Name Organization
Yan Kagan University of California, Los Angeles Jiancang Zhuang Institute of Statistical Mathematics (Japan) David Jackson University of California, Los Angeles
Other Participants Max Werner
SCEC Priorities A6, A10, A4 SCEC Groups Seismology, EFP, SHRA
Report Due Date N/A Date Report Submitted N/A
Project Abstract
 In this project we plan to implement a daily forecast of m > 4 earthquakes in California in the format suitable for testing in the RELM project. This
forecast would be based on near-real time reports of earthquakes above magnitude 2 downloaded automatically from the ANSS web site. Our forecast would compete against the STEP aftershock forecast of Gerstenberger
et al. (2005), and others submitted to the RELM earthquake forecast testing center. Our forecast will be based on the ETES model, for Epidemic Type Earthquake Sequence model developed by Kagan, Ogata, Helmstetter, Zhuang, and others. Note that the method is commonly called “ETAS” (“A”
for “Aftershock”) but the forecasts are not limited to aftershocks. Tasks for 2007 include (1) improving the computer program developed by Helmstetter et al. (2006a); (2) extending the forecast to all of California (3) improving the procedures for inputting earthquake data and recognizing blasts and other problems; (4) considering alternate validation and testing procedures for comparing models to data and to each other, (5) examining the robustness of the model parameters and forecast rates in the presence of noisy and incomplete data, and (6) improving the model formulation and testing procedures to improve forecasting performance in the presence of data errors.