SCEC Award Number 07175 View PDF
Proposal Category Collaborative Proposal (Integration and Theory)
Proposal Title Short-term earthquake forecasting in California and Japan: a comparison
Investigator(s)
Name Organization
Jiancang Zhuang University of California, Los Angeles Yan Kagan University of California, Los Angeles Yosihiko Ogata Institute of Statistical Mathematics (Japan) David Jackson University of California, Los Angeles
Other Participants
SCEC Priorities A6, A10, A4 SCEC Groups Seismology, EFP, WGCEP
Report Due Date N/A Date Report Submitted N/A
Project Abstract
 This project is a part of the SCEC project on Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) and it opens research contributing to the collaboratory study of earthquake predictability (CSEP). We have developed both short-term and real-time earthquake forecasts based on stochastic point process models that describe the interactions between earthquakes. The whole forecasting procedure in-cluding training from the past, updating forecasted earthquake probability based on new observations and scoring the past. Forecasts are scored by using the information gains (likelihood ratio) to models that describe complete randomness of the process of earthquake events (Poisson processes) or some time-dependent reference models. Our forecasts covers the Japan region and the Southern California region in order to know the performance of point-process models and such forecast schedule in evaluating earthquake probabilities.