SCEC Award Number 10002 View PDF
Proposal Category Collaborative Proposal (Integration and Theory)
Proposal Title CSEP Testing of Seismic Cycles and Earthquake Predictability on Three Mid-Ocean Ridge Transform Faults
Investigator(s)
Name Organization
Margaret Boettcher University of New Hampshire Jeffrey McGuire Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Jeanne Hardebeck United States Geological Survey
Other Participants Wolfson, Monica- UNH PhD Student
SCEC Priorities A6, A SCEC Groups EFP, Seismology, SHRA
Report Due Date 02/28/2011 Date Report Submitted N/A
Project Abstract
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Intellectual Merit By developing earthquake forecasts, which are currently being tested within CESP, we will be able to evaluate whether the timing of the largest earthquakes on mid-ocean ridge transform faults follow elastic rebound/ renewal processes. Thus, our efforts directly address the science objective to “Test scientific prediction hypothesis against reference models to understand the physical basis of earthquake predictability”. Furthermore, our project falls under an action item of the UCERF 3 Project plan, which is to “Develop self-consistent, elastic-rebound-motivated renewal models which are currently lacking for anything but strictly segmented models. This will likely require exploring synthetic earthquake catalogs produced by physics-based simulators”. We have compared the recurrence probability distribution function assessed by a rate-state simulator for a single planar fault to real data from appropriate (e.g. tectonically isolated) faults.
Broader Impacts This project has promoted earthquake science at the University of New Hampshire (UNH) through discussions of earthquake predictability that took place in both introductory and upper level undergraduate courses, which were based on examples taken from work done during this project. Additionally, this project supported and strengthened collaborations between UNH, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, and the U.S. Geological Survey. Such collaborations are especially important in the development of early career faculty. Furthermore this project supported the involvement of a female graduate student and a female early career faculty in SCEC.
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