SCEC Award Number 10088 View PDF
Proposal Category Individual Proposal (Integration and Theory)
Proposal Title Travel Funds for CSEP Integration and Development
Investigator(s)
Name Organization
Maximilian Werner Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich (Switzerland)
Other Participants Wiemer, Stefan
Schorlemmer, Danijel
SCEC Priorities A6, A4, A10 SCEC Groups Seismology, EFP
Report Due Date 02/28/2011 Date Report Submitted N/A
Project Abstract
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Intellectual Merit This project critically examines untested assumptions in the earthquake rate estimates in common seismic hazard maps, including the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF). By providing testable earthquake forecasts for the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP), we can refute hypotheses about earthquake occurrence and advance our understanding of the physics of earthquakes. For instance, we showed that the time-independent rate forecast underlying the Italian seismic hazard map is unable to explain past observations because of overconfidence in two assumptions: narrow seismically-active zones near mapped faults and spatially-variable maximum magnitudes. We also provided further evidence of the importance of small earthquakes in forecasting the locations of moderate and large quakes and published the first fully documented ETAS earthquake forecasts for California. These (low-probability) forecasts embody the earthquake triggering and clustering that seems so important to earthquake occurrence. Finally, the project provided recommendations for the design of future earthquake predictability experiments.
Broader Impacts This project helped maintain and strengthen ties between existing and new geographic nodes in the global Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP), whose mission to conduct earthquake predictability experiments crucially depends on a global partnership to develop new models and to collect new observations to test these models. In testing seismic hazard forecasts and earthquake prediction algorithms, CSEP benefits society by helping to develop improved estimates of earthquake potential in California and elsewhere. This project also contributed to the CSEP software package by implementing new and improved testing methodology.
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