SCEC Award Number 14194 View PDF
Proposal Category Collaborative Proposal (Data Gathering and Products)
Proposal Title Continued Development of OpenSHA/UCERF3 in Support of Operational Earthquake Forecasting, Hazard Assessment, and Loss Modeling
Investigator(s)
Name Organization
Thomas Jordan University of Southern California Edward Field United States Geological Survey
Other Participants Kevin Milner
SCEC Priorities 2b, 2e, 4e SCEC Groups Seismology, CSEP, EFP
Report Due Date 03/15/2015 Date Report Submitted N/A
Project Abstract
 Major developments were made in support of UCERF3 development. This includes implementation of the long term time dependent component of the UCERF3 model (UCERF3-TD). A preliminary short term operational UCERF3-based forecast was also implemented and has gone through initial testing (UCERF3-ETAS). CyberShake collaboration has also been strong in this report period, including addition of Maximum Considered Earthquake Response (MCER) calculations for the Utilization of Ground Motion Simulations committee.
Intellectual Merit UCERF3 related activities and data products calculated in OpenSHA were peer reviewed by the UCERF3 Scientific Review Panel as well as peer reviewers for publication in BSSA and represent best available science.
Broader Impacts The final UCERF3 time dependent model was released on March 10, 2015 and received broad media attention. There are many groups in many different disciplines currently taking steps to adopt it. The CyberShake MCER work will hopefully soon lead to inclusion of CyberShake results in the building code for the Los Angeles region.
Exemplary Figure Figure 1
Postcard for final UCERF3 Long Term Time Dependent model showing M>=6.7 participation probabilities throughout California.