SCEC Award Number 16157 View PDF
Proposal Category Individual Proposal (Integration and Theory)
Proposal Title Developing earthquake simulators for use in seismic hazard estimates: Contributing to OEF and UCERF3-ETAS
Investigator(s)
Name Organization
Bruce Shaw Columbia University
Other Participants
SCEC Priorities 2e, 4e, 2b SCEC Groups WGCEP, CSEP, EFP
Report Due Date 03/15/2017 Date Report Submitted 07/01/2017
Project Abstract
 Estimating seismic hazard is one of the core efforts of SCEC. As a key setting for integrating our physics and empirically based understandings of earthquakes, and of central societal relevance, it stands as one of the flagship products our community produces. It also helps point to where there are gaps in our understanding, and where there are opportunities for improvement. With the completion of the long term time dependent part of UCERF3, current efforts are focussed on shorter timescale clustering behavior, and integrating that into an Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF)
capability. This is being developed currently in the UCERF3-ETAS model, which the PI is actively participating in developing. This proposal aims to contribute to this, by bringing new ideas and modeling capabilities.
Intellectual Merit This work is opening up new avenues for quantifying hazard, new technologies for estimating it,
and new ways for understanding the physical basis for it.
Broader Impacts Seismic hazard estimates have huge impacts on societal investments in mitigation and response.
This work is feeding directly into our current best models, and future improvements.
Exemplary Figure I am not including a figure just yet, as the results are a bit too preliminary.
But the comparison of RSQSim vs UCERF3 in the PGA 2% in 50year hazard maps is extremely interesting and important.
This provides a new validation pathway for both RSQSim and UCERF3 at the system level.